TSLA: AI + Technicals Meets Macro Tailwinds

24 Ogo

AI Forecast (VolanX Protocol)

Current Price: $340.01

30-Day Target: $387.70 → +14.0% upside

Institutional Trade Plan:

Entry: $340.01

Stop Loss: $314.45

Targets: $346.81 / $387.70

Risk/Reward: 1.87:1

Model Agreement: 8/9 bullish

Technical Structure (4H Chart):

Broke above a triangular consolidation, now testing equilibrium from below.

Key support levels: $313.60 / $301.30 (discount zone).

Resistance / extension zones lined up at:

First: $368–$369

Extended: $400–$402 (1.618–2.618 fib levels).

Macro Catalysts & Market Context:

Fed Rate Sentiment Improving: Powell hinted at possible September rate cuts; markets rallied with Tesla leading, rising 6%.
Value Sense Blog
+6
Barron's
+6
Investors
+6
Investopedia
+1

EV Tax Credit Flexibility: New IRS guidance allows buyers to secure the $7,500 credit via contracts before Sept 30, potentially boosting demand.
Investors
+1

Mixed Q2 Fundamentals: Q2 saw declining deliveries & regulatory credits; Musk warned of “rough quarters” ahead, but emphasized AI & robotaxi growth.
Investors
+6
Investors
+6
New York Post
+6

Geopolitical Risks & Tariffs: Tariff pressure, fading EV credits, and sales underperformance in key regions keep long-term risks present. Analyst targets range widely.
Investopedia
MarketWatch
Value Sense Blog
Investors

Probabilistic Outcome Mix:

Base Case (50%) → $346–$368 (near-term resistance test aligned with AI target)

Bull Extension (25%) → $387–$402 if macro tailwinds persist and structure sustains breakout

Bear Risk (25%) → Breakdown below $340 could retest $313–$301

Trade Setup Breakdown:

Long Entry: $340
Stop: $315
Take Profit #1: $368
Take Profit #2: $388
Option: scale into $400s if breakout momentum holds


Why It Matters:
This setup represents AI-driven momentum meeting technical trend alignment and favorable macro catalysts. If Fed signals, EV policy flexibility, and optimism around Tesla’s AI/autonomy can power continued upside, $387–$400 becomes very plausible. However, macro risks and execution hurdles need monitoring.

14 Sep

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

closing on monday