Timeframe: Daily | Scale: Linear
The stock has attempted a breakout from a massive 15-year structural resistance, driven by index inclusion news. However, the daily price action signals strong profit-taking at higher levels, making the breakout fragile.
🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The massive 41.38 Million volume is a direct reaction to a major announcement:
- Bank Nifty Inclusion: It was announced that Union Bank will be added to the prestigious Nifty Bank Index starting Dec 31, 2025.
- Impact: This news forces passive funds (ETFs) to buy the stock, creating the volume spike. However, the "Shooting Star" suggests that active traders used this liquidity to book profits.
📈 2. The Long-Term Structure (The "Lid")
- The Cycle:.
- Peak: ATH in Oct 2010.
- Bear Market: A decade-long spiral ending in May 2020.
- Recovery: Since 2020, the stock has formed a "Higher Lows" structure, steadily attacking the resistance.
- The Resistance: The ₹154 – ₹155 zone is a "historic" resistance. It was a key level in Aug 2007. Breaking a 15-year-old level is significant, but it requires a strong close to be valid.
🕯️3. The "Shooting Star" Warning (Today's Action)
> The Pattern: Today’s candle is a textbook Shooting Star.
- The Trap: The stock rallied to a high of ~₹160*, luring in breakout buyers.
- The Rejection: It was slammed back down to close near ₹155, leaving a long upper wick.
> Interpretation: This signals that despite the good news (Index inclusion), massive supply (sellers) is still present above ₹155. The bulls failed to hold the high ground.
📊 4. Indicators
- EMA & RSI: The indicators (EMA PCO, Rising RSI) are bullish across Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes. This supports the broader uptrend, but the daily candle overrides these in the short term.
🎯 5. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The "Shooting Star" at a 15-year resistance is a classic "Bull Trap" warning.
- 🐂 Bullish Confirmation (The "Safe" Entry):
- Trigger: Ignore the current close. Wait for a Daily Close above the Shooting Star High (₹160).
- Target: ₹220. Once ₹160 is cleared, the 15-year supply is absorbed, and the path is open.
- 🐻 Bearish Rejection (The "Fakeout"):
- Trigger: If the stock slips back below ₹154 tomorrow.
- Consequence: This confirms today was a "fakeout." The price will likely drift down to the moving averages.
- Support: ₹125 is the deep support, but the 20-day EMA (~₹145) will likely be the first test.
Conclusion
While the trend is up, do not chase this breakout yet. The Shooting Star suggests the market is using the "Index Inclusion" news to sell. Wait for a close above ₹160 to confirm the bulls have won.
The stock has attempted a breakout from a massive 15-year structural resistance, driven by index inclusion news. However, the daily price action signals strong profit-taking at higher levels, making the breakout fragile.
🚀 1. The Fundamental Catalyst (The "Why")
The massive 41.38 Million volume is a direct reaction to a major announcement:
- Bank Nifty Inclusion: It was announced that Union Bank will be added to the prestigious Nifty Bank Index starting Dec 31, 2025.
- Impact: This news forces passive funds (ETFs) to buy the stock, creating the volume spike. However, the "Shooting Star" suggests that active traders used this liquidity to book profits.
📈 2. The Long-Term Structure (The "Lid")
- The Cycle:.
- Peak: ATH in Oct 2010.
- Bear Market: A decade-long spiral ending in May 2020.
- Recovery: Since 2020, the stock has formed a "Higher Lows" structure, steadily attacking the resistance.
- The Resistance: The ₹154 – ₹155 zone is a "historic" resistance. It was a key level in Aug 2007. Breaking a 15-year-old level is significant, but it requires a strong close to be valid.
🕯️3. The "Shooting Star" Warning (Today's Action)
> The Pattern: Today’s candle is a textbook Shooting Star.
- The Trap: The stock rallied to a high of ~₹160*, luring in breakout buyers.
- The Rejection: It was slammed back down to close near ₹155, leaving a long upper wick.
> Interpretation: This signals that despite the good news (Index inclusion), massive supply (sellers) is still present above ₹155. The bulls failed to hold the high ground.
📊 4. Indicators
- EMA & RSI: The indicators (EMA PCO, Rising RSI) are bullish across Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes. This supports the broader uptrend, but the daily candle overrides these in the short term.
🎯 5. Future Scenarios & Key Levels
The "Shooting Star" at a 15-year resistance is a classic "Bull Trap" warning.
- 🐂 Bullish Confirmation (The "Safe" Entry):
- Trigger: Ignore the current close. Wait for a Daily Close above the Shooting Star High (₹160).
- Target: ₹220. Once ₹160 is cleared, the 15-year supply is absorbed, and the path is open.
- 🐻 Bearish Rejection (The "Fakeout"):
- Trigger: If the stock slips back below ₹154 tomorrow.
- Consequence: This confirms today was a "fakeout." The price will likely drift down to the moving averages.
- Support: ₹125 is the deep support, but the 20-day EMA (~₹145) will likely be the first test.
Conclusion
While the trend is up, do not chase this breakout yet. The Shooting Star suggests the market is using the "Index Inclusion" news to sell. Wait for a close above ₹160 to confirm the bulls have won.
Disclaimer: This analysis is my personal view & for educational purposes only. They shall not be construed as trade or investment advice. Before making any financial decision, it is imperative that you consult with a qualified financial professional.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Disclaimer: This analysis is my personal view & for educational purposes only. They shall not be construed as trade or investment advice. Before making any financial decision, it is imperative that you consult with a qualified financial professional.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.