Yields (almost) ready to start building a floor
The 4th wave in this pattern would usually not retrace as much as 50% which on this chart was 2.55%. The break above here is sending a loud message that sentiment is changing and increases the possibility of having put a more meaningful floor in March. The rise since March is impulsive in nature and this underpins the potential for a move higher in yields.
As you all know by now the overriding theme last week came from the U-turn in US-China trade talks. Risk sentiment suffered on the back of this as it became clear things will get worse before they get better. As always with protectionism there are no winners and further escalation will hurt both sides, my baseline scenario is still for a “deal” to be reached in Q2 however we must trade expectations first and facts later.
Best of luck those watching for signs of price actions developing a floor here in the 'v' wave.
As you all know by now the overriding theme last week came from the U-turn in US-China trade talks. Risk sentiment suffered on the back of this as it became clear things will get worse before they get better. As always with protectionism there are no winners and further escalation will hurt both sides, my baseline scenario is still for a “deal” to be reached in Q2 however we must trade expectations first and facts later.
Best of luck those watching for signs of price actions developing a floor here in the 'v' wave.
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Penafian
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