One of the things that has happened in the past recessions in the market is the rotation of the yield difference charts from the negative range. One of the reasons is the beginning of expansionary policies at this time.
To justify that we are not in an economic recession, the Federal Reserve points to short-term maturity spreads that are not in the negative range, in addition to the labor market.
The expected outlook is the beginning of recession from the end of this year, where the short-term reduction of GDP and the economic growth reaching below its average will increase the unemployment rate in the coming years.