USD/CAD Short Entry

13 Nov

Looking at the current formation of the broadening wedge at the current peaks on USDCAD. Will wait until we break the shown level of support and/or confirm breakout under the bottom trend with a 4HR Retest.

Risk/Reward 2:1

Will Re-evaulate trade periodically and update as I see fit. With how crazy bullish USD has been lately I will not be jumping in early in hopes for a better position as there is the possibility the pattern will invalidate pushing USD/CAD even higher

14 Nov

Dagangan aktif

Jumped in a very small position at top of the trendline as we currently have a large bear wick on the 4HR chart right at the top of the trend. Will progessively increase in position sizing as it begins to appear more set in stone. A Breakout and restest above the trend will invalidate the pattern and close my trade at a loss. Given current overextension up I believe it to be more likely I will be able to ride this thing for some pull back even if a break out under doesnt come.

15 Nov

Nota

Have not yet closed out actrive trades, 1HR Bear divergence looks promising and the DXY is hitting very strong levels of resistance while also setting in lower highs and lows throughout the past 2 days. I have a rising wedge drawn on the shorter time frame in which DXY has tested yet again today. Bottom of the trend currently sits the Ichomoku cloud and we are riding the 50 SMA.

This reversal will not likely be an overnight occurance. Expect price to range trade in the meantime as consolidation occurs in preperation for the next move.

The key is to look for what is the most likely direction price will move AFTER consolidation.

- On the daily we are at key resistance, if we cannot break and hold over well the more likely result would be for price to come back down and price will continue to flucuate between $108.00 - 99.50 as it has for the past 2 years.

- Strongly believe there has not been enough market change over the past 30 days to signify the type of substantial growth in the DXY we would need to break the current level of resistance. Trump being elected is promising however until actual policy changes are executed any major influx of price is purely emotional bias.

Will emotions bring DXY price over major resistance levels alone OR do we need to see action from the fed and in policy before that type of major change would happen? Personally I do not believe that the election alone is enough to drive price action much higher. Not without first having a market correction.