Seasonal Short

23 Mei 2018

COT data shows commercial longs on Franc futures are the highest in 5 years.

barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/S6*0

The seasonal play for the Swissie is a long mid-May along with other USD based currencies.

charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/CHFUSD.PNG
charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/EURUSD.PNG

30 Year yields top out around mid-May each year, which is another reason that the US Dollar experiences a fall starting then on average.

equityclock.com/pictures/TreasuryYield30YearsTYXSeasonalChart_F393/image.png

23 Mei 2018

Nota

Also, Yen is becomes the strongest play eventually beginning in mid-May.

charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/JPYUSD.PNG

The reasoning behind the May move is the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" as it pertains to selling or closing stock positions and fleeing to "risk off" assets such as the franc and yen (and bonds). Stocks typically run sideways from May to September each year.

23 Mei 2018

Nota

Bounced on daily ATR trailing stop today... that was intense.

Trying to breakout of tight channel

24 Mei 2018

Nota

Reshort at that channel was the right choice. While I am shorting USDCHF directly i have 2 contracts of S6M2018 swiss futures that I am holding. I will have to roll them next month if this trade continues to do well.

First target is the year pivot (cyan line in main chart) at about 0.9833.

24 Mei 2018

Nota

Pitchfork now guiding this trade to the year pivot

25 Mei 2018

Nota

Another short off CAM R3 Daily today... MORE downside. XAUEUR is flying with the yen.

31 Mei 2018

Nota

Closed trade for now on Year Pivot.