USDJPY Analysis – Yield Support Signals Potential Upside

25 Mei

USDJPY is currently sitting at a key support zone around 142.80–143.00, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. This support area has previously acted as a strong launchpad for price rallies.

🟢 Technical Setup:

Price action has formed a clean higher low structure, bouncing off horizontal support.

The US10Y Treasury Yield (pink line) has rebounded sharply and is diverging to the upside — a leading indicator for USDJPY strength.

The Fib retracement from the last swing move aligns well with the 0% zone, suggesting the dip might be complete.

A bullish reaction from here targets the 148.50 zone, with intermediate resistance around 145.00–146.00.

🟠 Risk Levels:

Invalidated below 141.40 (structure break).

Stops could be placed below 142.00, targeting a 2:1 or better risk-reward ratio.

🔍 Macro-Fundamental Insight:
U.S. Yields are firming despite mixed Fed signals — this gives strength to USD, especially against low-yielders like the JPY.

BOJ remains dovish with no urgency to normalize rates, keeping the yen weak.

With risk appetite improving and bond yields lifting, carry trade dynamics favor USDJPY upside.

✅ Conclusion:
As long as US10Y yields remain firm and USD holds above 142.00, USDJPY has a strong probability of rallying toward 148.50. Look for confirmation with higher highs on the 4H chart and continued divergence between yield and price.

27 Mei

Dagangan aktif

27 Mei

Nota

27 Mei

Nota

The recent weakness in the U.S. dollar and bonds seems driven by market concerns around Trump’s proposed tax plan, which could push U.S. debt from around $36 trillion to over $40 trillion. Investors fear this could lead to inflation or even stagflation. But this bearish move in the USD might not last. Yields have clearly bottomed in April and are now pushing higher, which typically supports the dollar as higher returns attract foreign capital. If inflation expectations rise due to fiscal stimulus and debt concerns, the Fed may delay rate cuts or even turn hawkish again—another positive for the dollar. On the technical side, USDJPY has pulled back to around the 144 level (near the 23.6% Fib) after topping near 160, and it looks primed for a bounce if yields continue rising. Ironically, even concerns about U.S. debt can drive demand for USD, as it remains the global reserve currency and a safe haven when risk appetite fades. In short, the recent dollar sell-off may just be a short-term reaction. If yields keep rising and the Fed holds its ground, the USD could rebound sharply—especially against low-yielders like the yen.

28 Mei

Nota