USDJPY test of weekly levels

This chart shows the weekly timeframe with a 200sma plotted and you can also notice the major swing which has fib levels as well. Notice that the simple moving average is resting between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels. This may act as a magnet which suggests that the yen will surpass the 38% fib level but not fully reach the 50% fib level. At the time when the market is trading around the 200sma, there could be some over shoot of the level which takes price briefly down to the 50% level and thus shaking out the week longs. As long as there is a bullish reversal formation down at those levels then that sets up nicely for a move back to the upside. A stop loss can be placed below the 61.8% level, however this trade still has a likely hood of being stopped out. A true stop would be place below the low down at 98.88, but that is a big stop.