My first analysis.. !!
Janet Yellen and other FOMC members claims last friday that United states is ready to increase rate. Many analysts belive that Yellen might increase rate on both September and December this year.
However, I do think we will only see one time rate hike... !!! because of President election.
President Obama had to face world economic crisis on 2008. Untill president Obama retire his position, he want soft market to expand obama care.
In other words, Yellen must not increase rate on September but will on December (2016). Yellen increased interest rate 0.25% last year December. If she doesn't increase rate this December, it might damage stock market because people will think market is not ready. Plus, if she doesn't increase rate this year, she might to have to increase rate faster than supposed to be next year.
Japanese story is, BOJ want to stimulus market on September. (but since USD turn bullish, BOJ doesn't need to bring huge stimulus package)
In conclusion, USD will be strong till mid September, and JPY will be weaker till end of this year.
** Target price 1: 104.1 (short term)
** Target price 2: 105.26 (before end of September)
** Target price 3: 110.066 ( till end of this year)
Good luck,
It's might first post. I hope I helped your portfolio.
P.S. I got in USD/JPY long position between 99 and 100
Janet Yellen and other FOMC members claims last friday that United states is ready to increase rate. Many analysts belive that Yellen might increase rate on both September and December this year.
However, I do think we will only see one time rate hike... !!! because of President election.
President Obama had to face world economic crisis on 2008. Untill president Obama retire his position, he want soft market to expand obama care.
In other words, Yellen must not increase rate on September but will on December (2016). Yellen increased interest rate 0.25% last year December. If she doesn't increase rate this December, it might damage stock market because people will think market is not ready. Plus, if she doesn't increase rate this year, she might to have to increase rate faster than supposed to be next year.
Japanese story is, BOJ want to stimulus market on September. (but since USD turn bullish, BOJ doesn't need to bring huge stimulus package)
In conclusion, USD will be strong till mid September, and JPY will be weaker till end of this year.
** Target price 1: 104.1 (short term)
** Target price 2: 105.26 (before end of September)
** Target price 3: 110.066 ( till end of this year)
Good luck,
It's might first post. I hope I helped your portfolio.
P.S. I got in USD/JPY long position between 99 and 100