$USD v $NOK - Geo Eyes Imminent Bullish, Then Bearish Targets

8 Nov 2015

QUICK ANALYSIS:

Here is another educational trade involving a combination of the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Geo. As you recall, the "Model" is very good at establishing targets, but poor at timing. Combining the "Model" with the Geo offers a high-probability visual pathway towards these targets.



In this particular case we have two sequential targets, both being qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo, imposing a deeper reversal impact on price compared to quantitative targets - TG-1, TG-2, ... etc. - which have a tendency to impose a shallower Fibonacci retracements in the order of 0.386 to 0.618).

As you may also recall, the WEEKLY chart recently hit a significant Qual-Target:

So, the interest at this time is to decipher the mechanism of descent which is likely to bring price down to about 6.6000, as illustrated in the weekly chart above.

For this, we can focus on a daily chart and appreciate the following geometry:


Looking a bit further, we can also focus at the 4-hour level and look into the morphology of that geometry - What we are looking for is a Geo, with its high-probability price control, as a rationale for that descent to lower lows:


Now that we have defined the contours of the Geo, following is a schematic projection of a probable price pathway, given the Predictive/Forecasting Model's predefined targets, as shown:


Following also illustrate a prudent, conservative entry when dealing with this sort of geometry, where the orange square defines that level that would trigger a short, but not until price Breaks Across, Closes Across ("BACA"):


Once a BACA < 1-3 Line occurs, then there is nothing else to do, but let the Predictive/Forecasting Model receive validation:



OVERALL:

Above illustration serves as an educational demonstration of how to deal with the Geo, the Wolfe Wave and any other contracting geometries. However, with the combination of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, there is a higher degree of probability that can be reached, and this is how most of the trade I share with the TradingView community are defined.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: 4xForecaster
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10 Nov 2015

Nota

10 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is carving out higher-highs. Target at 8.84482 remains intact and in force:



David Alcindor

12 Nov 2015

Nota

12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to drill through arctic resistance ... Now hammering in a higher piton:



David Alcindor

31 Dis 2015

Nota

31 DEC 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

NOK hit 8.84482 target defined this past November, 08th ... High-probablility reversal exists at this level:



David Alcindor

4 Feb 2016

Nota

03 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to fall, carving lower-lows, since completion of the large geometry:


Bearish target remains intact and in force.

Best,


David Alcindor

4 Feb 2016

Nota

04 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price continues to decline, watch for 8.12 acting as a significant resistance to bears - Although the Geo did not validate a 5' position, this level would represent a Geo's Rule #2 application.



In any case, the bearish target at 7.884, defined last November 08, 2015, remains intact and in force:

Best,


David Alcindor

15 Apr 2016

Nota

14 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price just hit the level corresponding to the geometry's Point-4. Still, the original target, defined as TG-Lo = 7.88368 on November 08th 2015 remains in force and intact:


Best,


David Alcindor