first 85$ then 108$

9 Okt 2022

oil went beyond 90$ and invalidated bearish scenario .90$ is the last lower high which broke upward and turn oil bullish .OPEC decision was ridiculous in term of affecting market since the production cut is less than 1mbpd as real number or less than 1% of total world capacity so this small portion cut will not the real factor behind this new bull run .
approaching to cold season or China easing covide policy or Russia price cap or failed Iran US atomic deal maybe some contributing factor
keeping these in mind and respecting ichimikou signal we are expecting market to have a correction near 85$ and then resume upward move toward 108-121$ area of strong resistance of fibo levels and price action levels
also appearing a harmonic pattern on USDCAD on weekly time frame will be a confirm for this wti bullish scenario
please see wti big picture as below

please share your ideas
tnx

21 Okt 2022

Nota

the highlighted rectangle will decide whether price will move higher or not ,if breaks higher target can be seen

24 Okt 2022

Nota

monitoring daily ks and ts cross ,if happens huge fall will be seen
and bullish scenario will be cancelled

2 Nov 2022

Nota

2 Nov 2022

Nota

The weakness in the U.S. Dollar couldn’t have come at a better time for crude oil bulls who are preparing to ride the start of perhaps another leg higher on the back of the OPEC+ production cuts that are expected to begin from the 1st of November .

The record exports in the United States combined with speculation ahead of the European Union’s embargo of Russian crude oil are also helping to support prices.

Both WTI and Brent settled higher in October, posting their first monthly gains since May.

9 Nov 2022

Nota

above bullish scenario have been updated here ,we expect price to move upward between 100-114$ as seen below .we lowered our targets

14 Nov 2022

Nota

Economic headwinds and weak demand from China due to Covid lockdowns have weighed on oil prices in recent months.
Sanctions on Russian oil, the OPEC+ supply cut, and the possibility of China opening up mean that the risk to oil prices is now to the upside.
There is further upside risk for oil due to potential supply disruptions in Russia, Libya, Iraq, and Iran.

21 Nov 2022

Nota

Hawkish comments last week from several Federal Reserve officials not only gave the greenback a boost, dampening demand for dollar-denominated crude oil but they also sparked concerns over the U.S. economic outlook. Recessionary economic data from the U.K. and Euro Zone also encouraged investors to sell oil.

Last week was a busy one for Fed speakers with over a dozen Fed officials offering their latest views on the economy, jobs, inflation and current policy settings.

Most policymakers delivered the clearly hawkish message – inflation has not meaningfully softened, more work is needed, and interest rates will stay higher for longer.

Hawkish policymaker comments drove Treasury yields higher as well as the U.S. Dollar. The rise in yields raised concerns about a recession. The strong dollar is making crude oil more expensive for foreign buyers.

Both rising rates and a strong dollar are likely to keep a lid on demand.

23 Nov 2022

Nota

G7 countries are expected to announce the Russian oil price cap. Previously, the market consensus was that G7 will set the price cap in the $60 – $65 range.

Interestingly, the recent WSJ report suggests that the price cap may be set as high as $70, which would be a major surprise for the market.
Currently, Russian oil is sold at a significant discount to Brent oil due to sanctions. According to Neste, this discount has been growing in recent days and currently stands at $25.6.

Brent oil is trading near the $90 level, so Russian oil is selling for about $65, in line with the potential price cap.

According to recent reports, China has paused some purchases of Russian oil in order to wait for the details of the price cap scheme. Most likely, China is trying to evaluate whether the price cap mechanism will provide it with an additional advantage in negotiations with the Russian producers.

3 Dis 2022

Nota

Friday’s price action suggests traders are keeping their powder dry until Monday when they will have the OPEC+ decision under their belts and have had a chance to digest the potential impact of the EU Russian ban on oil prices.

Meanwhile, China’s decision to ease its COVID-19 quarantine protocols could be sending a bullish signal.

The wildcard remains the OPEC+ decision, in my opinion. Prices could spike higher if they surprise with fresh output cuts. However, crude prices could fall hard if they leave production at current levels. Compounding the problem will be the uncertainty surrounding the Russian ban and China COVID restrictions. It may take weeks to figure out the impact of the ban, meanwhile, China may change its mind about easing COVID restrictions.

Brace for heightened volatility at the start of the new week.