USA vs China, Laura and Oil, German GDP and business expectation

26 Ogo 2020

The main event of yesterday was the telephone talks on the review of the Phase 1 of the trade agreement between the United States and China. Recall that the negotiations were supposed to take place on August 15, but then Trump had another exacerbation of his relationship with China, so he decided to postpone the meeting. But yesterday the meeting took place. And judging by the comments of the parties, it turned out to be quite constructive, or at least not destructive. The sides are ready to comply with the agreement, at least in words.

In this regard, the dollar was as usual under the downward pressure, but without the development of a local trend. So, our position is still unchanged: for intraday purposes hourly oscillators can be used and trading can be done without obvious preferences in direction. But at the same time, the dollar should still be sold more aggressively, and be bought from conservative points.

In the oil market, news of hurricanes and the shutdown of oil and gas production on the coast line pushes oil prices up. According to the latest information, about 82% of oil production facilities and about 57% of gas production facilities have already been closed on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Note that hurricane Marco has already lost its strength, but Laura is set up quite seriously. Given that hurricane season is a traditional event in the area, and also extremely temporary, we continue to see this growth in oil prices as an opportunity for better entry points to sell oil.

The revised GDP data for Germany was released yesterday. The outbreak of the epidemic in Europe greatly worried investors, so economic data from Germany was important for them to calm down. We can say that they got what they needed. The GDP decline rate was revised for the better from 10.1% to 9.7%. Ifo's business confidence index also improved slightly.

So EURUSD drops below 1.18 is a good buying opportunity within the day.