After several months of holding firm, USOIL has finally broken below its key support zone around $67–$70, which had acted as a floor since mid-2021. This is a significant technical development, and the current price action is showing a classic bearish retest of that broken structure.
Technical Breakdown:
Support Broken:
The $67–$70 zone was tested multiple times over the past 2 years. Price has now cleanly broken through it and is struggling to reclaim it.
Retest in Progress:
Price is currently hovering around $62.36 and failing to push back above the broken support. This retest is textbook and could confirm further downside.
Market Structure:
Lower highs and lower lows dominate the weekly chart = clear bearish trend.
Bearish Targets:
Target 1: $53.50 – Previous minor demand zone from 2021.
Target 2: $41.50 – Strong historical support and potential major bounce area.
Invalidation Zone:
If price closes above $70 on the weekly chart, the breakdown would be invalidated and we’ll reconsider our bias.
Confluence:
Broken multi-year support
Bearish retest on weekly timeframe
Clear downside liquidity below
Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Setup: Short on confirmation of rejection below $67
Timeframe: Weekly / Daily
This is a high-probability setup if the rejection continues. Look for further bearish price action on the daily or 4H chart for refined entries. As always, manage risk carefully.
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Technical Breakdown:
Support Broken:
The $67–$70 zone was tested multiple times over the past 2 years. Price has now cleanly broken through it and is struggling to reclaim it.
Retest in Progress:
Price is currently hovering around $62.36 and failing to push back above the broken support. This retest is textbook and could confirm further downside.
Market Structure:
Lower highs and lower lows dominate the weekly chart = clear bearish trend.
Bearish Targets:
Target 1: $53.50 – Previous minor demand zone from 2021.
Target 2: $41.50 – Strong historical support and potential major bounce area.
Invalidation Zone:
If price closes above $70 on the weekly chart, the breakdown would be invalidated and we’ll reconsider our bias.
Confluence:
Broken multi-year support
Bearish retest on weekly timeframe
Clear downside liquidity below
Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Setup: Short on confirmation of rejection below $67
Timeframe: Weekly / Daily
This is a high-probability setup if the rejection continues. Look for further bearish price action on the daily or 4H chart for refined entries. As always, manage risk carefully.
Like & Follow for more clean, high-timeframe breakdowns!
Nota
Trading Psychology Insight – The Retest TrapQuick mindset lesson related to this USOIL setup:
When price breaks a major support and then retests it, most traders get caught off guard.
Here’s what usually happens:
FOMO kicks in: Traders see the bounce and assume the move is reversing.
Hope bias takes over: They ignore structure and think it’s a fakeout.
They enter long right into smart money’s sell zone.
The truth?
Retests are designed to trap emotional traders.
Smart money uses this bounce to re-enter short at a better price.
The key is patience and discipline. Wait for rejection, confirmation, and then act not before.
Lesson: Discipline beats prediction every time.
Let me know if this helped ..
Penafian
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.