long term oil

11 Jan 2017

good old inverse head and shoulders on the Weekly time frame (long term)

orange lines show intermediate cycle low timing and we are due for a cycle low shortly (forecast date for intermediate cycle low is a forecast based on past timing, it is a Speculative target in the future. do not short this immediately based exclusively on timing of intermediate decline).

i think the move up will be corrective, but regardless its a trade you want to be in.

there are 2 ways to get in this trade once the intermediate cycle is over- either Long Oil (commodities path) or Short USDCAD (forex path)

11 Jan 2017

Nota

short term (days) it is not very clear how the structure will develop.

currently i have oil in a wave 4 which should reverse soon and make a new high.

i am not very certain of oil making this new high. if we rally but fail to make a new high it means the intermediate decline is starting which will result in yearly low for oil.

regardless my current count and 2 fib projections are attached with temporary target for one more new high in 57-58 range, before drop into intermediate low.

if we have a strong drop below 50, there wont be a new high until after intermediate cycle makes a yearly low.

11 Jan 2017

Nota

here is what i am thinking if the inverse head and shoulders forms as forecast:

11 Jan 2017

Nota