SHORT CRUDE OIL - The Garfield Pattern [Fundamental Analysis]
Ladies and gentleman, I present to you the latest brand new super innovative pattern in technical analysis - the Garfield Pattern.
You may think I am not being serious, but I am dead serious and have entered a short position at 47.2 prior to FOMC meeting yesterday.
Why have I done this? Well FOMC minutes seem to be emphasizing on the dullness of price data, and points to higher USD and lower commodity prices as its culprits. Therefore, in accordance with the FRB's mandate, they maintained the FFR at 0-0.25% yesterday. In the short-run this will definately put a downward pressure on USD and thus an upwards pressure on WTI and other commodities. However, when looking at a bigger picture, market is aware that the Fed will raise rates sooner or later and this reflected in CME group's Fedwatch, implied FFR futures probability. Furthermore, by not raising rates, Fed is fostering a low rate credit environment where high risk oil exploration and production companies can obtain, or maintain, credit at a relatively lower cost (This increases supply).
So where does this lead us? It leads to a cycle where 1) Fed provides lower interest rate environment that encourages yield seeking behavior via excessive investments in higher risk projects (a.k.a further accumulation of debt) 2) oil producers produce more OR doesn't go bankrupt as quickly due to lax credit markets condition (In which they'll still have to produce more to pay their existing debt) 3) CPI stays low due to high energy production, and finally 4) Fed doesn't raise rates because of low price levels.After this the cycle repeats on and on.
Generally speaking, I think the lack of bullishness on yesterday's trading session is a proof of less bullish sentiment (Maybe the big money's aware of this cycle).
Good luck.
You may think I am not being serious, but I am dead serious and have entered a short position at 47.2 prior to FOMC meeting yesterday.
Why have I done this? Well FOMC minutes seem to be emphasizing on the dullness of price data, and points to higher USD and lower commodity prices as its culprits. Therefore, in accordance with the FRB's mandate, they maintained the FFR at 0-0.25% yesterday. In the short-run this will definately put a downward pressure on USD and thus an upwards pressure on WTI and other commodities. However, when looking at a bigger picture, market is aware that the Fed will raise rates sooner or later and this reflected in CME group's Fedwatch, implied FFR futures probability. Furthermore, by not raising rates, Fed is fostering a low rate credit environment where high risk oil exploration and production companies can obtain, or maintain, credit at a relatively lower cost (This increases supply).
So where does this lead us? It leads to a cycle where 1) Fed provides lower interest rate environment that encourages yield seeking behavior via excessive investments in higher risk projects (a.k.a further accumulation of debt) 2) oil producers produce more OR doesn't go bankrupt as quickly due to lax credit markets condition (In which they'll still have to produce more to pay their existing debt) 3) CPI stays low due to high energy production, and finally 4) Fed doesn't raise rates because of low price levels.After this the cycle repeats on and on.
Generally speaking, I think the lack of bullishness on yesterday's trading session is a proof of less bullish sentiment (Maybe the big money's aware of this cycle).
Good luck.
Penafian
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