There is still more to fall in USTECH 100. It has fallen over 30% from its ATH of more than 17000. Given the scale of the volatility that is experienced since the invasion of ukraine and its ramifications, there is still another 15+% fall in the horizon. Nothing happens in a straight line, so we may see the index rise towards 12500 before it resumes its downward trend.
Factors that will influence its fall:
1. Recession fears. The markets remained spooked. Uncertainty in supply chains, sovereign economies going bankrupt (eg: Sri Lanka, Who is next - Pakistan?)
2. Supply chain blockages are not going to get resolved anytime soon due to the volatility in freights, rising insurance of freights meaning exporters prefer FOB while importers will prefer Landed costs.
3. Strikes from stevadores at ports and other actions taken by the transport sector globally.
4. Sweden and Finland being accepted into the NATO is going to make Russia more nervous. That will only raise the global geopolitical temperatures.
5. China / Taiwan issues are still not in the headlines, and they will make their way to the headlines, spooking the markets even more.
Given these scenarios, 2022 is not going to be an easy year. Probably we can look at retreating equities markets for another few months before it knife stops falling.
my TP for a TECH100 short (over a 5 month period) is 9000. No point in trying to catch a falling knife for now!
Factors that will influence its fall:
1. Recession fears. The markets remained spooked. Uncertainty in supply chains, sovereign economies going bankrupt (eg: Sri Lanka, Who is next - Pakistan?)
2. Supply chain blockages are not going to get resolved anytime soon due to the volatility in freights, rising insurance of freights meaning exporters prefer FOB while importers will prefer Landed costs.
3. Strikes from stevadores at ports and other actions taken by the transport sector globally.
4. Sweden and Finland being accepted into the NATO is going to make Russia more nervous. That will only raise the global geopolitical temperatures.
5. China / Taiwan issues are still not in the headlines, and they will make their way to the headlines, spooking the markets even more.
Given these scenarios, 2022 is not going to be an easy year. Probably we can look at retreating equities markets for another few months before it knife stops falling.
my TP for a TECH100 short (over a 5 month period) is 9000. No point in trying to catch a falling knife for now!
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.