In 2007, the volatility found its overall bottom (when looking at the sedond contract) in feb07, 5/7 months before the last tops.
In 2015, we are on new successive marginal tops and the bottom of vol was reached 7 months ago in Jun14.
From here whatever happens the the 2month forward vol will be well bid because even if SP500 was to increase the market would purchase more options to protect its downside not allowing vol to mark new lows.
Komen
look4edge
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hi, yacine, i plotted es/vix.sq ratio, all techs seems to indicate upside break (vol goes down) and 1-1.5 yr topping process, let`s see...
BobbyBlueShoes
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Nice work YaKa! Even if it does not come to pass.
VIX strength is not only an indicator that the market is hedging perceived risk, it is also a natural speculative position by the smart money before the real selling begins. Let's face it, if you owned the market and controlled the real selling button, you would position for gain in every way you could.
Grumpy side note: How are we supposed to compete in an "open" market when the smart money knows EVERYTHING and we look at pretty charts.
I'm long VIX since Friday 20th March close, but my stops are tight. The relentless bull has battered logic out of me. tradingview.com/v/iVacSHwQ/