Here were the swings of the VIX in 2007 heading into the crash.
The low was made in Jan of 2007 and the first rally in the VIX went to around 37.
It then pulled all the way back to 15.
Then it went to 80 which was a 220 extension of the pullback.
We currently have a VIX rally off the low to around the same level and have pulled back and are hovering close to the same level the VIX made a low. If we were to have the upswing, this would also be a 220 extension of the pullback to generate a level around the same as the VIX made a high during the crash.
This is a pretty interesting set of matching points. The point in the move this would imply we are would agree with this forecast of a bat move, with us currently being in a spot analogous to the start of the last run into the high of 2007.
The low was made in Jan of 2007 and the first rally in the VIX went to around 37.
It then pulled all the way back to 15.
Then it went to 80 which was a 220 extension of the pullback.
We currently have a VIX rally off the low to around the same level and have pulled back and are hovering close to the same level the VIX made a low. If we were to have the upswing, this would also be a 220 extension of the pullback to generate a level around the same as the VIX made a high during the crash.
This is a pretty interesting set of matching points. The point in the move this would imply we are would agree with this forecast of a bat move, with us currently being in a spot analogous to the start of the last run into the high of 2007.
Nota
I think it still has a little more down to go, but to date this has quite closely followed the model of 2007.Nota
Both the VIX and the SPX have now completed moves extremely similar to 2007. The crash of 2008 is well remembered. The false start of 2007 isn't.
I think it'd be fair to say if markets went into a big crash now the crash of 2024 would be remembered, while people forgot about the false start in 2022.
Nota
Theoretically, this would seem a good spot for long call options on VIX. In practice, I think there are more efficient ways to bet on a large move than trading the VIX. So, just on a conceptual basis, this looks like a possible spot for a VIX rally. I do not have VIX calls, but I do have various bets that would benefit from the vol spike.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.