Defying death at edge of waterfall
Telah dikemas kini
See this link here
Using VIX, the fear index to guide us, we can roughly estimate how close we are coming to the edge of the upcoming waterfall. We know it is there and will come but when is the million dollar question on everyone's mind. You get your usual market economists who had been proclaiming the crash of the market for the last decade (Noriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, etc).
One day, they will get it right !
The VIX chart shows us there is a gap at 17.6 to 21.9 that has not been filled up todate. The descending wedge pattern is a bullish signal for VIX, meaning if the price action shoots up, then we can deduce SPX500 along with the other US indices will fall.
SPX500 is now at 3081, surpassing the 61.8 FIB level and the 200EMA, so technically we are NOT in a bear market anymore. Ya, some of us are already popping champagne and celebrating.
We have about 300 plus points to go before it revisit its previous peak at 3405 on 18 Feb 2020.
How it is going to be play out in the remaining quarters remain a mystery to many. GDP figures for Q2 is going to be ugly for many countries, US-China tensions remain high with trade agreements being fouled up, HK political scene and the recent riots and looting in US (RIP George Floyd).
If you have not long SPX500 and want to do it , please make sure you are clear on your time horizon. If you are trading for the short term, maybe you want to wait for a pull back first. If you are doing DCA (dollar cost averaging) on a monthly basis and believe in the performance of SPX500 , then whether it corrects 5% or 50% , it matters little to you.
It is easy to get lost in the jungle when you see trees after trees and were too busy chopping down these trees that you forgot to take a step back and see the jungle view. Are you still heading the right direction ? From time to time, it is good to reorientate yourself so that you are clear and know where you are going, what you are doing.
Using VIX, the fear index to guide us, we can roughly estimate how close we are coming to the edge of the upcoming waterfall. We know it is there and will come but when is the million dollar question on everyone's mind. You get your usual market economists who had been proclaiming the crash of the market for the last decade (Noriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, etc).
One day, they will get it right !
The VIX chart shows us there is a gap at 17.6 to 21.9 that has not been filled up todate. The descending wedge pattern is a bullish signal for VIX, meaning if the price action shoots up, then we can deduce SPX500 along with the other US indices will fall.
SPX500 is now at 3081, surpassing the 61.8 FIB level and the 200EMA, so technically we are NOT in a bear market anymore. Ya, some of us are already popping champagne and celebrating.
We have about 300 plus points to go before it revisit its previous peak at 3405 on 18 Feb 2020.
How it is going to be play out in the remaining quarters remain a mystery to many. GDP figures for Q2 is going to be ugly for many countries, US-China tensions remain high with trade agreements being fouled up, HK political scene and the recent riots and looting in US (RIP George Floyd).
If you have not long SPX500 and want to do it , please make sure you are clear on your time horizon. If you are trading for the short term, maybe you want to wait for a pull back first. If you are doing DCA (dollar cost averaging) on a monthly basis and believe in the performance of SPX500 , then whether it corrects 5% or 50% , it matters little to you.
It is easy to get lost in the jungle when you see trees after trees and were too busy chopping down these trees that you forgot to take a step back and see the jungle view. Are you still heading the right direction ? From time to time, it is good to reorientate yourself so that you are clear and know where you are going, what you are doing.
Nota
now the VIX has break out of the descending wedge, will this be a genuine breakout or false alarm? Let's wait for this two days. Note, SPX500 is still trotting nicely on the bullish trend line.Nota
Tonight closing candle is very crucial for SPX500. If it closes above the bullish trend line, then things are back to normal and buyers will continue to ride up. Else, we can see another sell down. Be cautious now.Nota
It lands on the support level at 24.6, it can either rebound from here or close the gap.Nota
Each day that VIX failed to breaks up, the higher the chance that it is heading south to close the gap at 17.50. If that is true, then the probability of SPX500 revisiting its previous high at 3405 has increased.
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.