Inside days on the cash VIX are typically a reversal sign
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A bearish or bullish candle followed by a day were the cash VIX opens & closes within the previous days candle AND are the opposite color are typically signs of a VIX reversal. IMO the very best signals are ones where the inside day is smack in the middle (this is based upon a visual) of the previous days open/close (the green arrows on this chart). However, the black arrows also produce reliable signals.
Since Sept 1, 2021 (211 trading days) there have only been 19 signals (less than 10%). With the exception of March 23, 2022, they all gave valid signals (95% of the time the signal was valid). The green arrows produced the best results but some of the black arrows also gave good signals. Some lasted 1-5 trading days while others lasted 15-30 trading days.
In general, the best signals are when these inside day reversals are found at either support or resistance. Because the cash VIX is in a weekly & monthly uptrend, I am using my purple & blue lines for true support/resistance levels. The purple is the weekly open/close trend line while the blue is the monthly open/close trend line. I also always have open weekly VIX gaps on my charts as I know these eventually clear out and will act as support or resistance.
As you can see today produced a black arrow and is suggesting the downside movement in the VIX will be reversed either tomorrow or perhaps in a day or two. However because we are not in an area of significant support/resistance I think the reversal will be limited to the 35 area.
I do not trade UVXY but have thought about entering a short term "sell side" trade on it due to the decay factor using this signal.
Since Sept 1, 2021 (211 trading days) there have only been 19 signals (less than 10%). With the exception of March 23, 2022, they all gave valid signals (95% of the time the signal was valid). The green arrows produced the best results but some of the black arrows also gave good signals. Some lasted 1-5 trading days while others lasted 15-30 trading days.
In general, the best signals are when these inside day reversals are found at either support or resistance. Because the cash VIX is in a weekly & monthly uptrend, I am using my purple & blue lines for true support/resistance levels. The purple is the weekly open/close trend line while the blue is the monthly open/close trend line. I also always have open weekly VIX gaps on my charts as I know these eventually clear out and will act as support or resistance.
As you can see today produced a black arrow and is suggesting the downside movement in the VIX will be reversed either tomorrow or perhaps in a day or two. However because we are not in an area of significant support/resistance I think the reversal will be limited to the 35 area.
I do not trade UVXY but have thought about entering a short term "sell side" trade on it due to the decay factor using this signal.
Nota
Here is my weekly chart...As I mentioned above, clearing gaps along with support/resistance is what is most important about following the VIX. As you can see there are plenty of open gaps that have yet to fill both above and below where we sit today. It's anyone's guess as to how the market fills these gaps so that is why these daily "inside days" for me are important signals.
Nota
Remember inside days are a signal that we are nearing a reversal so we need to be on guard for the reversal. Today's close is holding support. If you look at the time the signal did not work you can see that the following day close (March 24th) didn't hold support.Nota
Notice how "inside weeks" were warnings of a fairly large move in the VIX.
Big Question-Will the June 6th low at 23.74 hold as the next higher low? Will next week produce an inside week? Watching closely!!!
I did take a trade yesterday in VXM and got stopped out for a small loss. After everything held support this morning I realize today is not a day to trade the VIX>
Nota
I'm a little perplexed by the cash VIX on the daily for a reversal right now. I didn't take a trade this week yet however I'm still watching closely because I do think it gives us a reversal sign by weeks end with a closing on Friday above 26.43. Notice the above chart where an "inside week" was created...during that week the cash VIX re-tested the previous weeks low. We have yet to do this this week so be careful.
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