Winter is coming and it may be a long one.
Current:
As we head into the election with no stimulus in sight, things are looking grim. Increasing partisanship has divided the government. With Amy Barrett confirmed, the Republican have step on the Democrat's last toe. Tension will only increase as the election is near.
Covid resurgent is spreading across the globe once again. Almost every state and every country is breaking daily and weekly record. Europe is once again going into deep lock down and things could only get worse as winter is coming.
Bankruptcy are escalating. With stimulus running out, companies are entering chapter 11 left and right due to the unpreparedness of cash flow prior to the sudden pandemic shock. Most have tried every play in the book to recover cash but it can only go so far without more stimulus.
Near Term:
This winter, I anticipate turmoil. First with the election. Unless there is a clear outcome, any kind of close call will drag the counting and recounting on for the whole month. If the outcome doesn't end up with a red wave or a blue wave totally, partisanship will continue to divide the US until the year end.
For covid, like last winter, this time it may or may not be worse. People are more prepared this time around and will not be as shocked as last winter. However, rising unrest and conflict have stirred new protests and social movements around the world. These super spreader events will likely escalate the rate of infection exponentially. Vaccines will be available hopefully starting December, but it will not be immediately available to everyone. It will take months to get everyone vaccinate. Even then, scientist are predicting covid becoming an endemic. We may not see the end of this plague for years to come. Best to assume it is here to stay.
More companies will file for chapter 11. The portfolio disruption/shift will occur if there is a blue wave with things shifting to more tech and green. With a blue wave, tax laws will likely change for the upcoming year. BIG investor would probably alter their exit and entering strategy. The rumor of the next stimulus is likely to be priced in already. An actual agreement or passing of the bill will likely to only delay the inevitable. The current admin will probably enter a lame duck session. Whether win or lose, POTUS Trump is no longer motivated to get any kind of deal, at least not a sizable one as the Democrats.
Future:
The next year outlook depends on the US election, stimuli, and the FEDs. I anticipate with the diminished of small, mid-size business, and some poorly-managed large business will present to us a supply-deficient environment in the coming year. With ongoing stimulated-demand post?-covid, there is a chance that a demand-pull inflation will occur. You can already see this in housing once again in suburban areas. On the opposite side, urban realities are dropping as there is almost no demand. China-US conflict is continuing with the arms of Taiwan. Social movements such as BLM, cancel-mob, protests, etc. These are only a few of many events happening that are tightening the spring of tension. It is only a matter of time before things blow up unless we actively seek peace. Things will get really interesting 2021.
None of these are stock advice, it is just my two cents on the US market particularly. Please invest responsibly.
Thanks for viewing.
As we head into the election with no stimulus in sight, things are looking grim. Increasing partisanship has divided the government. With Amy Barrett confirmed, the Republican have step on the Democrat's last toe. Tension will only increase as the election is near.
Covid resurgent is spreading across the globe once again. Almost every state and every country is breaking daily and weekly record. Europe is once again going into deep lock down and things could only get worse as winter is coming.
Bankruptcy are escalating. With stimulus running out, companies are entering chapter 11 left and right due to the unpreparedness of cash flow prior to the sudden pandemic shock. Most have tried every play in the book to recover cash but it can only go so far without more stimulus.
Near Term:
This winter, I anticipate turmoil. First with the election. Unless there is a clear outcome, any kind of close call will drag the counting and recounting on for the whole month. If the outcome doesn't end up with a red wave or a blue wave totally, partisanship will continue to divide the US until the year end.
For covid, like last winter, this time it may or may not be worse. People are more prepared this time around and will not be as shocked as last winter. However, rising unrest and conflict have stirred new protests and social movements around the world. These super spreader events will likely escalate the rate of infection exponentially. Vaccines will be available hopefully starting December, but it will not be immediately available to everyone. It will take months to get everyone vaccinate. Even then, scientist are predicting covid becoming an endemic. We may not see the end of this plague for years to come. Best to assume it is here to stay.
More companies will file for chapter 11. The portfolio disruption/shift will occur if there is a blue wave with things shifting to more tech and green. With a blue wave, tax laws will likely change for the upcoming year. BIG investor would probably alter their exit and entering strategy. The rumor of the next stimulus is likely to be priced in already. An actual agreement or passing of the bill will likely to only delay the inevitable. The current admin will probably enter a lame duck session. Whether win or lose, POTUS Trump is no longer motivated to get any kind of deal, at least not a sizable one as the Democrats.
Future:
The next year outlook depends on the US election, stimuli, and the FEDs. I anticipate with the diminished of small, mid-size business, and some poorly-managed large business will present to us a supply-deficient environment in the coming year. With ongoing stimulated-demand post?-covid, there is a chance that a demand-pull inflation will occur. You can already see this in housing once again in suburban areas. On the opposite side, urban realities are dropping as there is almost no demand. China-US conflict is continuing with the arms of Taiwan. Social movements such as BLM, cancel-mob, protests, etc. These are only a few of many events happening that are tightening the spring of tension. It is only a matter of time before things blow up unless we actively seek peace. Things will get really interesting 2021.
None of these are stock advice, it is just my two cents on the US market particularly. Please invest responsibly.
Thanks for viewing.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.