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Fear Indicators vs. Facts & Figures

TVC:VIX   Volatility S&P 500
In the last days and weeks overall fear indicators showing that bets and fears on a shortime drop of global stockmarkets had been rising dramatically.

The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:

- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe
- Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia
- Upcomming First round of election in France


What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
Komen: APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&A
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/u.s.-stocks-shrug-off-global-tensions-and-eye-m-a-474690
Komen:
Komen:
Komen: Open the charts above and load new bars to follow investors sentiment.
Komen: APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
Komen: APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying high
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/brazils-economy-grew-at-fastest-pace-since-2010-its-stocks-are-flying.html
Komen: Fridays VIX, published in the trading view DAX 30 chat:
Komen: APR 17 2017 - F&G CBOE 5 day moving avarage put/call ratio:

Extreme fear: During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 31.10% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.
Last changed Apr 11 from a Fear rating Updated Apr 17 at 2:33pm
Komen: 17.04.2017 - Wall Street rises as earnings take focus from geopolitics

Quote: NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Monday after the S&P 500 closed the previous session at a two-month low, in a broad rally lead by recently beaten-down bank and tech shares. Market focus shifted from geopolitical tension to earnings, with several Dow components, including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), scheduled to release results later this week. Source: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-dip-on-soft-u.s.-data,-geopolitical-risks-474631
Komen: APR 17 2017 - Todays market action:
Komen: APR 18 2017: Geopolitics vs. underlying fundamentals:

- British PM May calls for early election to strengthen Brexit hand
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/british-pm-may-calls-for-early-election-to-strengthen-brexit-hand-474893

vs.

U.S. industrial production rises in line with expectations in March
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/u.s.-industrial-production-rises-in-line-with-expectations-in-march-474992

IMF raises global growth forecast, warns against protectionism
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/imf-raises-global-growth-forecast%2C-warns-against-protectionism-474985
Komen: APR 18 2017 - VIX maybe confirming short term stop of rising volatility:
Komen: Closing Print on April 18 2017:
Komen: APR 18 2017- Long ledged Doji. Closing price on wednesday 19th of April above the candle means up trend is going to continue. Closing price below todays low means the trend is reversed. Also this pattern is an so called "inside day" means where the move will go the following trading day the trend will accalerate.

Komen: VIX:
Komen: APR 19 2017 - LePen only 2% ahead of Fillon. Odds rising that LePen might become 3rd on next Sunday.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017
Komen: APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest
Komen: APR 24 2017 - Good point:

Komen: APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease;-earnings-in-focus-476653
Komen: APR 26 2017 - Le Pen not an option as French far-left polls members on election round two
https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/le-pen-not-an-option-as-french-far-left-polls-members-on-election-round-two-477426
Perdagangan tutup: sasaran tercapai: APR 26 2017 - Target reached - trade closed.

Komen: Labour ahead of Conservatives in unadjusted poll of voters
Overall result for Ipsos Mori still shows Theresa May ahead by five points - but the gap is narrowing in Jeremy Corbyn's favour
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-ahead-of-conservatives-tories-ipsos-mori-poll-unadjusted-a7770651.html
Excellent analysis. I enjoyed your rationale as well. I'm long, and have been long, $XIV. You posted at the height of the $VIX rally, great and impressive timing.
Balas
SwissView RHTrading
@RHTrading, Thx.
Balas
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