$VIX spike to $80-100 incoming

14 Mac

I think there's a large spike coming in VIX despite most people turning bullish on the market and bearish on the VIX.

Price has maintained elevated levels for the past few months, all of the RSIs are in extreme bullish territory and the move looks very similar to the spike that we got on August 5th.

Have no clue what will cause it, whether it's the fed meeting, gov't shutdown or some other outside factor, but the chart is looking like we should see a spike next week up to the $80-103 level.

Let's see how it plays out.

17 Mac

Nota

Note: the other possibility is that we see a smaller move this week but we don't top until next week.

18 Mac

Nota

Welp got the flip up right on the pivot this morning. Let's see where this takes us.

19 Mac

Nota

Welp looking like I'm wrong here unless we see a move start on the pivot tomorrow.

19 Mac

Nota

I still have a 10hr and 12 hr signal of a parabolic move incoming. Sometimes it's a failed move, sometimes not. I did think the move would happen today, but after Powell's speech the USDJPY sold off (which is what caused the initial selloff), it's currently sitting below support.

If the market continues selling and we see a bounce in the vix tomorrow, then I think we could see a move play out between tomorrow and Tuesday.

Everything still looks to me like we should see a vix move, but so far it hasn't materialized.

21 Mac

Nota

Based on the chart, looks like the pivot on Tuesday will likely be start of the next move and not a top. Let's see if we see a large bounce next week.

24 Mac

Nota

If we're going to get this move, it should play out by 4/4. Let's see if we get a reversal tomorrow.

28 Mac

Nota

Trade looking good now

2 Apr

Nota

Here's the volatility move... a few options from here: We top tomorrow, we top on the 8th or we top on the 15th.

Will have a better read when the markets open tomorrow.

Same targets.

4 Apr

Dagangan aktif

I ended up closing out my options today before close in anticipation of a large counter trend rally on Monday. I think we could see the S&P rally 6-8% on Monday and make everyone think the selloff is over, but then reverse on Tuesday to form a final low.

That's how I'm playing the move next week (assuming it plays out the way I'm thinking above). I want to buy the dip in volatility Monday should we get it for the final move to the highs.

7 Apr

Nota

Welp looks like we just go to the target now. Annoyed I got out a day early but it is what it is.

7 Apr

Nota

Didn't update this one today, but I'm currently still out of UVXY calls (which is how I'm playing this).

i think we see a bounce in the market sometime this week up to $541-545 or so and then we'll resume the move down.

If that happens, VIX will likely decline fast.

I'm looking to rebuy my UVXY calls around $28-30

8 Apr

Nota

I got back in calls today. Should see the low soon

9 Apr

Nota

Rough day today, the move that I was expecting yesterday played out today, where we got a bounce to $541-545 and VIX falling fast, and I repositioned the opposite direction.

I used the VIX lower to add to calls, it doesn't change my bias on the outcome. I still think we see $100+ before it's over.

Just frustrating having the right idea and trading it poorly. Let's see if we get the final move from here on out.

10 Apr

Nota

There we go, let's run it back then we'll see $100+

13 Apr

Nota

Relooking at the charts, I actually think the targets are $132-146. Those are the levels I'd be looking to get out and flip short.

15 Apr

Nota

Bought calls here

30 Apr

Nota

Alright final leg starting now.