Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap Index

My 2023 Public Comments and Thoughts

Telah dikemas kini

In 2023I will focus a bit more on helping the tradingview community to become better traders and investors
using my approach.

I will use the update feed to post my Comments, Thoughts, and charts about economics, trading, and investing.
I will try to answer questions but am limited in what I can say publicly. Please keep that in mind.
Of course, I will keep making videos and posting charts as I have in the past.

Lastly, remember I am a macro guy both in economics and charting. I like the "set-it-and-forget-it" type of trade.

Thank you to all for your support over the years, let's have a great year making money!

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GBPUSD continues to perform very well after posting this trade idea.

Unfortunately, only 13 like this idea but the returns speak for themselves.

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Nat gas is down another 10% today after closing my position this morning. I wouldn't be shorting down at these prices.

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My only prediction for 2023 was that Elon Musk will be removed as CEO of TSLA. We are getting closer to that reality today as TSLA implodes again down 11%

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Bear flags flying everywhere but we need more trading days to let things settle.

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The finance industry and media have conditioned us to view every dip as a buying opportunity.

Throughout history, 40% of market prices have been spent in a bear market.

The new generation of traders has not yet seen this side of markets.

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GME once again paying me handsomely! The gift that just keeps on giving me.

As expected.

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World trade is slowing. Bad JUJU!

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GME $16.31 The gift that keeps on giving

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BREAKING:

*EURO ZONE DECEMBER EU HARMONIZED CPI INFLATION JUMPS 6.9%; EST. 6.5%; PREV. 6.6%

*LARGEST ANNUAL INCREASE ON RECORD

🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸🇳🇱

Inflation us not easy to tame DXY jumping.

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*U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS GREW 223,000 IN DECEMBER, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 3.5% lowest since 1969.

Like I said before inflation is not easy to tame. Higher for longer is the theme. Bad for stocks

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GME Hits $15.45 now down $5 or lost -25% of its value since I posted this chart.

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GME is now down almost 90% since I posted this chart back on March 16, 2021 with no end in sight. The gift that keeps on giving.

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The first trade of the year was to close out my NAT GAS trade that I posted back in Sept 2022. I would not be holding anything short at this point.

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DXY at a key area

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Core CPI is not falling as fast as Headline.
Earnings per share as also weakening.

Still need more data from markets.

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Market update video

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Stright-up moves are designed to provoke emotions don't fall for them.

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Market bottoms are a process, not an event. Don't #FOMO! Be cool!

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Home Prices Peaking Relative To Household Income

Check out my latest post. :)

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Not much more left in the tank to grow revenues and profits
despite huge deficits

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Be cheap with your trading. It costs you nothing to let a good trade go. It may cost you everything to force a bad trade.

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Don't get too excited with Crypto. It hasn't bottomed yet.

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Investing is not about working hard. Investing is about being patient. You can only make money a couple of times per year if that.

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Check out my new post

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Patience is not inaction. Most traders don't understand the difference.

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Check out my new updated post Bond Yield and Recessions

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I know most want trade and these very important economic indicators are not cool. But if you want to become a good trader investor than you need to spend some time learning these things.
tradingview.com/chart/ztx1WdkA/

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There have been very few trades since Oct. 2022-

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Long-term declines in the stock market always give way to trendline breaks that move in the opposite direction.

The usual suspects keep falling for this pattern, but by the time they are proven correct, it no longer has a significant impact on their financial situation.

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INDIA RUPEE Continues to crash after posting this setup back on Sept 2022

INRUSD (Indian Rupee) About To Take Yet Another Fall. UPDATE!

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"The Ideas Man"

The "Ideas Man" is someone who constantly comes up with various ideas but lacks the capability to put them into action, as the next "great idea" always takes precedence.

Never be that guy/gal

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"A Bottom Feeder."

is a person who arrives after an event and suggests to have benefited, even though they never actually made the investment. They don't make predictions publicly and don't have a documented history of their investments. Their expertise lies in 20/20 hindsight

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Another great call was made back on Feb 3rd SNA

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Another great call was made back on Jan. 22nd CLH

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Corporate profit Update

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How is the FOMO thing coming along?

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Realtor. com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 70% YoY; New Listings Down 11% YoY

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If you cannot hold on to trades for an extended period of time then you are not really doing analysis. You are guessing and gambling.

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My latest Economic Market post.

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*NY FED: JANUARY EXPECTED HOUSEHOLD INCOME DROPS TO 3.3% VS. 4.6% IN DECEMBER

*NY FED: JANUARY EXPECTED HOUSEHOLD INCOME DROP WAS GREATEST IN SURVEY HISTORY

Before the news ever hit about household income there was me telling back in June 2021 this would happen.

What I do works in practice, not in theory.

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Sticky inflation is "Sticky"

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The Markets want higher earnings per share. The winds are shifting.

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Keep an eye on the 10-year yield. It is important right now.

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I see some meat on the bones of some nice short setups.

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Many people struggle to hold on to their trades for extended periods because they lack an understanding of how to value stocks, markets, and the economy. Although my "set-it-and-forget-it" approach is effective, it's not widely adopted because many individuals believe that they can increase their profits by frequently trading. However, this is far from the truth. In reality, frequent trading can be detrimental to investment returns due to transaction costs and emotional decision-making.

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Back on Jan 2022 I first warned that the Big News was not AAPL & TSLA it was mortgaged US30Y. of course, no one had a clue what I was talking about then. Today they are all "experts" telling you about it.

What I do works in practice, not in theory.

30 year Mortgages Will Get More Expensive in 2022

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I am seeing a lot of structure problems in the internals

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You cannot trade every wave. Even if you are right a couple of times the markets will throw you off the ball and run you over every time.

Make it a rule to only trade in one direction. The trend.

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I wonder if anyone is keeping track of my accuracy on my calls? Hm..

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if I only had a penny every time some "expert" said "the market priced in a terminal rate of..."

Too many experts out there not enough real traders

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Let me take a moment to thank you all for your support! Today I hit 2701 followers.
Humbled!

I will keep posting great risk-reward setups with high-accuracy calls.

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Do not overreact to SVB. this is not 2008. You will regret it

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Coinbase Exposure is $240 million in Signature Bank, which collapsed earlier today.

If you followed my crypto short setups you have done very well and do not need to chase anything at this point.

If you do try to chase you will be shorting in the hole and playing wackamole.

Patience and discipline are what are required now. Not shotgun predictions, vague hunches, and feeling trades.

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As I mentioned back on March 2nd here I see a lot of structural problems in the internals. Now everybody sees the same. Too late to do anything about it. patience!

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Market up today. I hope everyone took my advice and did not overreact to SVB. We will have our time in the sun. PATIENCE!

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Don't be surprised markets are up following SVB. It is actually a bad thing that markets are rising bc if falling interest rates

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EU banking crisis is far worse than crypto VC SVIB bank failure.

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4 for 4 on all my recent calls. NFLX DAL KMX DDS

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BREAKING:

*SWITZERLAND HOLDS TALKS ON OPTIONS TO STABILIZE CREDIT SUISSE

*SWISS OPTIONS FOR CS INCLUDE STATEMENT OF SUPPORT, BACKSTOP

No way! Another bailout?
hahaha!

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TNP Year revenues at $860 million and record profits of $204.2 million (EPS at $6.02 for 2022)

240% increase in annual EBITDA

140% increase in common stock dividend. (Currently 4%)

The stock has risen nearly 250% in a year. 2022 to 2023 while markets have tanked.

But people want to buy or

I featured TNP back in Sept 2021 calling it the "last value stock left" and i was right.

TNP The Last Value Stock Left In The Markets Update

These types of stocks don't come by every day but it is important for people to learn more than just lines on a chart to get positive results in trading and investing.

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I was warning people about banks right at the top. Now everyone wants to tell you all about it and holding emergency meetings. LOL!

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1929 great depression is said to be caused bc they didn't just print money to stop bankruptcy.

2023 great depression will be bc they printed too much money and passed out like candy backstopping everyone's risk #MMT style

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This chart hardly instills confidence in the banking system

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ICYM the follow up.

Regional Banks KRE Getting To Grips Its Not 2008

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The dividend yield in the S&P500 is excessively low at 1.67%

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Bull Trap!

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BREAKING: China says its territorial sovereignty is violated by India's Home Minister visiting Arunachal Pradesh.

I see BRICs are getting along very well.

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Hard market to trade best to wait and be patient.

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I am on the verge of a big announcement but being patient as can be.

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Markets are smoking crack right now. Let it be.

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Euphoric!

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Always difficult for me to explain to someone what has been is not what will always be. As such people are bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom. Bc they lack an understanding of how and why there are shifts in trends.

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Price is what you pay value is what you get relative to inflation, Bond yield, and currency

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Feels like the markets are setting everyone up.
Only 38% of the SP500 stocks are above the 20 DMA.

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Don't forget to watch the latest update video

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Another great call!

FED FUND RATE NOW 5% NEGETIVE TO INFLTION

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China doesn’t have enough white-collar jobs to accommodate the surge in college graduates. Furthermore, China will age out before they get "Rich". the US doesn't have that problem.

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Paypal target reached

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I am fast approaching 3000 followers. I want to take this moment to thank you all for your support. I will try to give you the best most accurate analysis possible while fighting off the false prophets' social media bots.

Thank you again! Humbled! :)

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Markets that move in a straight line up or down are designed to provoke emotions. being rewarded for emotions is the absolute worse thing a trader can experience bc it is negative learning.

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Youth unemployment

🇨🇳 China: 21.3%
🇺🇸 United States: 7.5%

BRICS are doing GRRREEEAAAATTT!!!!

NOT!

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I'll just leave this here.

NVDA P/E ratio 241.87 Earnings Yield of 0.004%

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SWIFT world payments:

USD: 42.60%
EUR: 31.70%
GBP: 6.47%
JPY: 3.11%
CNY: 2.54%
CAD: 2.12%
HKD: 1.46%
AUD: 1.43%
SGD: 1.00%
CHF: 0.97%
THB: 0.97%
SEK: 0.73%
NOK: 0.71%
PLN: 0.57%
MYR: 0.41%
NZD: 0.34%
DKK: 0.33%
PHP: 0.29%
MXN: 0.29%
ZAR: 0.27%

Note BRICS are insignificant in the real world.

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Musk's move wiped out anywhere between $4 billion and $20 billion in value, according to analysts and brand agencies. “It took 15-plus years to earn that much equity worldwide, so losing Twitter as a brand name is a significant financial hit,” said Steve Susi, director of brand communication.
fortune.com/2023/07/24/elon-musk-twitter-x-brand-value/

Spent $44 billion to buy a company losing money and destroy $4 to $20 billion of it by changing a logo alone.

Genius!

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My thought on FITCH. Long overdue for the credit downgrade. Is it the end of the world? Of course not. The US is still #1. with 4.5% of the global population producing 25% of global GDP. Remarkable! That's why the dollar is king!

However, FITCH is right we are headed in the wrong direction. Anyone who believes deficit spending 8% of GDP at max employment annually is sustainable has their head up their ARS!

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Increases over last 3 years...
CPI Medical Care: +4.3%
CPI Apparel: +12.8%
US Wages: +14.8%
CPI Shelter: +17.0%
CPI Food at home: +20.0%
CPI Food away from home: +20.5%
CPI New Cars: +21.6%
CPI Electricity: +23.5%
Actual Rents: +23.8%
CPI Transportation: +26.7%
CPI Gas Utilities: +34.1%
CPI Gasoline: +34.1%
Actual Home Prices: +39.6%
CPI Used Cars: +42.1%
CPI Fuel Oil: +59.2%
[9:59 AM]
Inflation growth coming down does not mean inflation is falling

Unsustainable for wages to keep going like this. Eventually, reality will hit.

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A nice little collection of my live calls made on tradingview over time :)
twitter.com/RealMacroEcon/status/1624531121328234496

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People are quickly finding out that sharp move up are not really bullish. They are designed to provoke emotions out of pikerd to FOMO so the market can then rip their face off.

No better example than the 3 bull traps GME "enthusiasts" suffered back to back to back recently.

This works every time bc most do not have the ability to value assets. They only know lines on a chart, pretty colors, storytellig in conjuction with collective reinforcement that astrology really does work.

Untill they fifure out it doesn't really work and give up bc they blew their account or they rather put their money else where. By then 2 more pikers have come along only to repeat the same exact mistakes.

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:
👀
30 year mortgage continues to climb 7.34% Bad JUJU!

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The Netherlands enters recession.
More bad JUJU!

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I am very happy to see the comments in my posts being a lot more mature and evidence based.

With a the exceptions of a few trolls are starting to die off.

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CRYPTOS breaking

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Housing Market Update:

1. Average 30Y mortgage rate at 7.5%, highest since 2002

2. Median rent price at a record 2000/month

3. Mortgage demand at its lowest since 1995

4. Median house now costs a record 700% of the median income

5. Homebuyers spending a record 40% of their income on mortgage payments

This is the least affordable housing market in US history.

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I dont recommend people but I will recommend VIXTINE. High quality work with 100% integrity and objectivity.

Very rare I'm the world. Definitely follow her work.

tradingview.com/u/Vixtine/

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A recap of current interest rates.

1. Credit Card Debt: 25%
2. New Car Loans: 14%
3. Used Car Loans: 9%
4. 30Y Mortgage: 7.5%

The last time rates were this high US debt to GDP were less than 60%. Today we are approaching 130%.

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Woohoo!! 3,000 followers! A big Thank you to all. I am Humbled! Expect nore good honest hard work with great risk/reward setups.

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After all the hype and cheering bullishness NVDA closes down for the day in after hours.

Remember price is what you pay value is what you get.

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Median cost to buy a house hits a new record of $2,748/mo, up a MASSIVE 90% since 2020.

In other words, buying a house today costs nearly $33,000 per year.

This is 46% of the median PRE-TAX household income in the US.

Post-tax, homebuyers in the US are spending nearly 70% of their income on home payments.

Meanwhile, the median monthly apartment rent just hit a fresh record of $1,859/mo.

Families don't have endless credit to consume and boost company rev. And EPS. This won't end well.

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After losing -$4.5 Billion Share price of China's property giant Evergrande plunges -87%.

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Bad news is "good news" is really bad news.

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Do not be persuaded by those who are eager to tell you what happened in markets every day.

They know even less than you.

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The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Aramco is considering selling $50 billion in shares, the largest sale in the history of capital markets. That's 6% of the Saudi GDP Massive amount.

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US and European companies rush to issue debt before rate decisions.

Thats nice but News flash!! You can't fix an insolvency problem with Liquidity.

Zombie companies will start to blow up the longer rates remain high.

Keep an eye on JNK (ETF) bond

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Global cross-border transactions by currency US #Dollar: 83% Chinese Yuan: 4.5%

China's money supply is 281 trillion Yuan. LOL! #BRIC's will kick A$$.

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An important week for the markets coming up. I'll leave it at that.

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So I’ve read Jonas note on multiple times now..

The price target from $250 to $400 is solely related to “dojo”, which does not functionally exist, generates zero revenue, and would need to rely on third party vendors relative to hardware..

If you do a search for the word "Dojo" in 10-Qs/Ks, you'll come up with exactly *zero* results.

Anyone who takes Adam Jonas's "Dojo" report on seriously should read this excerpt from a conference call with clients in May 2019.

He called a "distressed credit story" and said deliveries would miss (they didn't).

The stock was at $12.84 that day.

This is what market manipulation looks like folks.welcone to trading!

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1. Stop trying to know-it-all.

2. Don't worry about what others are thinking.

3. Learn how to be your own analyst and make informed decisions.

4. Adjust and manage along the way.

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People only hear what they understand. With that in mind, try to understand more than just the garden variety trading lingo that does not make you a better investor/trader.

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Markets are in trouble. I will just leave it at that.

CAUTION!

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For the last two years, I have been posting and updating trade after trade after trade with a high success rate. So many trades that I have almost lost track of myself.LOL!

In this post, I will make a list for you all to see the results. Just hit the search function on my page and hit the play button to see the outcome :) Remember I am a long-term trader and don't care much for a few percentage points. I care about big waves with big returns. Set it and forget type trading.

While I do not run a mutual fund and it would be ridiculous for me to take all the trades, it does demonstrate very effectively how BKC (Bear Knuckle Charting) and macroeconomics complement each other to produce profitable outcomes. The trades I take are the ones that best suit the personality of my portfolios.
here is the list.

TSLA MSFT AMC EWZ NATURALGAS
NVDA QQQ US2000 SUGAR DBA
AMZN NIO CLH US10Y SPCE
BTC JBLU CEW US02Y IPO
ETH META VEU XLF IHG
NFLX CN50US PAVE XLU LMT
AAPL CQQQ MATIC TNP BA
RCL VIAC PYPL DSX PINS
USOIL VT XAUUSD KMX MTUM
TGT CRYPTO TOTAL EUFN SNAP CCL
SBUX DDS BBWI DJI. SPY
AMT LTCUSD DPZ CRM UNH
SOLUSD KOSPI JETS SHIB AMD
SHAK USDIDR KBE GD NYA
INTC RUBUSD EEM GOL CAR
TTWO PKRUSD VWO AFRM KRWUSD
CHRTUSDT INRUSD PINS NMR TRJEFFCRB
GREK BKF IBM DXY CRSP
ARKK NKE KRE GBPUSD WHEAT
GME TRYUSD DAL EURUSD NIFTY
EGPT JNK BRLUSD DOGE AFRM

And countless others in Economic Data. That is a lot of responsibility to get right and not look like a fool! Yet the success rate is very high. Once again proving that BKC and Macro work extremely well! Simple plain charts and free economic data anyone can find on the net.

Indices, Commodities, Crypto, Bonds, Real Estate. Stocks, ETF it doesn't matter to BKC and macro. The method is the same. Let the charts and data tell you what is going on and not you guessing or trying to tell the data what is going on.

A big thank you to all of my 3111 followers for your support and kind words. Humbled!!! :)

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There has been a lot of internal damage done to stocks these past few weeks. Indices aren't yet revealing it.

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I will soon be going into a blackout phase.

RealMacro

Real Macro Economic Investing
patreon.com/Realmacro

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