We don't know how this is playing out but looks like President Trump risks his career for some targets. The best hedging manager I've ever seen. He has some real people's supporting from blue collars, farmers, militaries, also he's an president elected by law. It's not so easy to drag him down from the iron throne with real people's supporting.
Think about those Americans have invested the heavy metals from 2011 to 2017, their patiences are already out of service... from this huge crazy stagflation and indexes rising forever...
There's no guarantee that the XAUUSD is going to rise according to the DXY may bounce off quickly.
XAUUSD=net-short, XAUEUR=net-long(extremed), XAUAUD=net-short.
I have never seen this speculation sentiment in 2017. Traders should look at your own currency inflation very carefully. After the CAD hike, I'm following with the XAUCAD monthly hike result as an example of the other currencies hikes.
I'll publish a new inflation XAU related analysis, stay tuned...
XAUUSD=net-short, XAUEUR=turning into net-short( from extremed), XAUAUD=net-short. Today, all of the currency measuring XAU is arising. Traders should have paid more attentions to your own currency measured inflations in stead of the XAUUSD. For investment consideration.
A little squeezing into DXY, be carful with Yen here.
1, Dec. 2013 (Renminbi's devaluation day, surprising? It happened early before you realized it),
2, Dec. 2014 to Feb. 2015 (BOJ/ECB mirror day, negative day),
3, Dec. 2015 (The first hike, the FRB panic day),
4, Nov. 2016 (Trump's day, correlation changing confirmation, also on July 2016, Brexit formed inflation top where has been truncated by Germany Government bunds 10Y yield negative, this is saying we're going higher with positive yield and unfulfilled targets),
If we count July's low is also a reset, then the triangle E point should have been ready to burst out. It'll be a perfect time, with Renminbi's triangle hasn't been bursted out, yet... (was very disappointed)
The good side is that Mr. Zhou will retire soon, it might be worse but we really need some new bloods no matter what happens. Mr. Jiang chaoliang has been predicted before.
A little squeezing as predicted before, Euro can go lower until the Dec. 2017.
The short has been trigged.
ECB’s Vasiliauskas: Now it's a good time to start QE end debate
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Discussion about QE end will continue in 2018.
Now it's a good time to start QE end debate.
more added "The target has been done"
---------------------------------------------- a separate line here
Very funny, after my predictions? A little be late...
With core inflation is at the edge of abysmal fall and stocks overdraw EU zone's 6 years future, they're lying on your face that a success is done? Seriously?
Inflation target is ECB's job too, they've failed it by using EU zone's 6 years future in 3 years very quickly. The negative thing is unnatural, we should've removed it.
Please remember that central banks usually cause all markets crashing during the food inflation switching to the core one. When the crashing happens they will redo QE, this time maybe China would like to do it instead of USA.
The market will crash soon, especially be careful in EU zone's stocks and Euro Bunds.
Some forex pairs, like USDCNY could drop because of PBOC don't want to hike, they will use US dollar Vs. Chinese Renminbi rates fro controlling the China inflation. This will be a disaster, an huge mistake like negative interests.
Let's look our history on chart. The gold rose from 600 to 1900, it's 300% rising. USDCNY can't afford from 8.0 to drop to 2.666, a 300% appreciation, will destroy China output trades. The Chinese Renminbi has to hike for control it.
For EU zone, EURUSD could rise to 1.30 from 1.03, a 25% rising can't control it too. The ECB has to hike too.
1; EU zone inflation cycle has been divided with the USA inflation cycle from 1st. Sept. 2011. After the US dollar interests hike in 2015, it's the same but USA needs more.
2; Chinese Renminbi is using wrong money policy by following Euro, the China economic cycle should've cooperated with the USA cycle.
Now we all count on the FRB hikes but if they fail you......
This is healthy BTW.
Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.
Interestingly, if we zooming into weekly chart from 2015 where USA hikes, the globalization has come back... culturally speaking this's very impressive.
( above chart is on a log scale)
It looks like that a big money policy from ECB will happen or the FRB pause the hike to release the inflation and help EU zone. Or they will play trade war and Italy or Brexit again. Renminbi’s deposite hike will do that but they won’t do it.
If this is the failure, BTW, human civilization may pull back animals are rising. The population growth is ending during past 3 years, due to the unhealthy negative interests among major banks, especially China is still in a negative in Renminbi basic deposit interests.