Gold has rallied hard over the past few sessions and is now hovering just below the $3800 supply zone. Price action suggests that we may see a liquidity grab above $3800 before a potential reversal.
Core Thesis
Probability: ~60% chance of a sweep into $3800–3810, followed by a retracement.
Alternative: If momentum stays strong, gold could break past $3830 and extend higher.
Why: Parabolic move since the 22nd → ripe for mean reversion. Stoch RSI also signals exhaustion.
Technicals
Resistance Zone: $3790–3810 (supply, liquidity cluster).
Indicators: Stoch RSI elevated (~79), showing overbought conditions.
Trend: Strong short-term uptrend, but extended.
Trade Idea
Plan A (primary): Short if price sweeps $3800–3810 and shows rejection.
Target: $3700–3720.
Stop: Above $3830.
Plan B (contingency): If $3830 breaks with volume, flip bias → possible continuation rally.
Risk Factors
Global macro events (Fed decisions, geopolitical shocks) can instantly flip sentiment.
Gold often double-taps liquidity zones, so a single sweep may not be final.
Long-term gold bias remains bullish; this setup is purely short-term tactical.
Summary
Gold is at a critical juncture. The base case is a $3800 liquidity grab and pullback, but traders should stay flexible. A clean break above $3830 would invalidate the short setup and could open the door for another leg higher.
Core Thesis
Probability: ~60% chance of a sweep into $3800–3810, followed by a retracement.
Alternative: If momentum stays strong, gold could break past $3830 and extend higher.
Why: Parabolic move since the 22nd → ripe for mean reversion. Stoch RSI also signals exhaustion.
Technicals
Resistance Zone: $3790–3810 (supply, liquidity cluster).
Indicators: Stoch RSI elevated (~79), showing overbought conditions.
Trend: Strong short-term uptrend, but extended.
Trade Idea
Plan A (primary): Short if price sweeps $3800–3810 and shows rejection.
Target: $3700–3720.
Stop: Above $3830.
Plan B (contingency): If $3830 breaks with volume, flip bias → possible continuation rally.
Risk Factors
Global macro events (Fed decisions, geopolitical shocks) can instantly flip sentiment.
Gold often double-taps liquidity zones, so a single sweep may not be final.
Long-term gold bias remains bullish; this setup is purely short-term tactical.
Summary
Gold is at a critical juncture. The base case is a $3800 liquidity grab and pullback, but traders should stay flexible. A clean break above $3830 would invalidate the short setup and could open the door for another leg higher.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.