$XAUUSD TradingView Idea: CPI Data – Gold at the Crossroads

TradingView Idea: CPI Data – Gold at the Crossroads (June 11, 2025)
📰 Macro Catalyst: US CPI Data Release – June 11 at 12:30 GMT
Market awaits critical inflation data. Forecasts point to Core CPI YoY at 2.9% (vs previous 2.8%).
This is a macro turning point for Gold (XAU/USD).

📊 Gold Technical Setup
Chart Setup (D1):

Key Resistance: $2,375 (recent swing high)

Support Zone: $2,295–$2,310

200 EMA: Acting as dynamic support around $2,310

RSI: Near 50 — momentum undecided

🧠 Scenario Planning – CPI Impact on Gold
🟥 Bearish Case (CPI Hot – Above 2.9%)
Fed tightening risks rise → real yields spike → Gold under pressure

Trade Idea:
🔻 Short XAU/USD
🎯 Target: $2,295 → $2,250
🛡️ SL: $2,375

🟩 Bullish Case (CPI Cools – Below 2.9%)
Fed dovish pivot grows likelier → USD weakens → gold rallies

Trade Idea:
🟢 Long XAU/USD
🎯 Target: $2,375 → $2,410
🛡️ SL: $2,310

📅 Watchlist for Reaction:
📌 DXY (Dollar Index)

📌 US10Y Yields

📌 Fed Futures (for rate cut pricing)

💬 Mindset for Traders
"Trade the reaction, not the number."
Gold is a macro asset—watch how yields and USD react, not just the CPI number itself.