🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 08 - April 12]
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This week, international gold prices continued to increase sharply, from 2,228 USD/oz to 2,330 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,329 USD/oz.
There are currently 3 main factors that are causing gold prices to increase sharply beyond expectations. There is the need to buy gold by central banks, the upcoming interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks around the world, and finally, extremely strong geopolitical tensions on many fronts. battles, including the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Of the three factors mentioned above, the biggest concern is the significant increase in geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in the Middle East as Iran may retaliate against Israel for the country's suspicion of bombing the University of Israel. Iranian embassy in Syria. This has significantly increased the role of gold as a haven. In addition, the purchase of gold by central banks will also create long-term leverage on gold prices, especially when central banks of the BRICS bloc are stepping up gold purchases to ensure their own payment system. to avoid dependence on the US and the West. In addition, when central banks, especially the FED, begin the process of cutting their basic interest rates, gold prices will also gain momentum.
Notably, the US labor market in March unexpectedly grew strongly, with non-farm employment figures (NFP) reaching 303,000 jobs, much higher than Reuters' forecast of about 200,000 jobs. This will give more motivation for the FED to cut interest rates for the first time next June after a long series of interest rate increases.
From the beginning of 2024 until now, international gold prices have increased about 17% after surpassing the resistance mark of 2,000 USD/ounce in mid-February. Thus, compared to the above increases, international gold prices will remain There is plenty of room to increase further when the FED cuts interest rates this year. Notably, the strong increase in gold prices often takes place before the FED starts cutting interest rates.
March CPI and PPI - important US inflation data, published next week may also have a strong impact on gold prices next week.
According to forecasts, US CPI in March will increase by about 0.2%. If this data is as expected, or even increases below 0.3%, it will be positive news for gold prices next week, because this data will prompt the FED's plan to cut interest rates in June. to become more convincing. On the contrary, if March CPI increases to 0.4% or higher, it will be a matter of concern. This makes it possible for the FED to continue delaying its plan to cut interest rates, negatively impacting gold prices next week.
📌Technically, gold price has increased beyond the medium-term price increase channel on the weekly chart, which is a positive signal, showing that the gold price increase in the medium and long term will continue. However, the price has gone quite far from the moving averages, while the RSI... is already in the overbought zone. This poses a risk of profit taking for gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support levels for gold prices next week are at 2,250-2,200-2,100 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the 2,400 USD/oz area will be an important resistance zone.
The trading plan for next week will consider the buying watch around 2250, the selling watch around the round resistance mark of 2400.
There are currently 3 main factors that are causing gold prices to increase sharply beyond expectations. There is the need to buy gold by central banks, the upcoming interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks around the world, and finally, extremely strong geopolitical tensions on many fronts. battles, including the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Of the three factors mentioned above, the biggest concern is the significant increase in geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in the Middle East as Iran may retaliate against Israel for the country's suspicion of bombing the University of Israel. Iranian embassy in Syria. This has significantly increased the role of gold as a haven. In addition, the purchase of gold by central banks will also create long-term leverage on gold prices, especially when central banks of the BRICS bloc are stepping up gold purchases to ensure their own payment system. to avoid dependence on the US and the West. In addition, when central banks, especially the FED, begin the process of cutting their basic interest rates, gold prices will also gain momentum.
Notably, the US labor market in March unexpectedly grew strongly, with non-farm employment figures (NFP) reaching 303,000 jobs, much higher than Reuters' forecast of about 200,000 jobs. This will give more motivation for the FED to cut interest rates for the first time next June after a long series of interest rate increases.
From the beginning of 2024 until now, international gold prices have increased about 17% after surpassing the resistance mark of 2,000 USD/ounce in mid-February. Thus, compared to the above increases, international gold prices will remain There is plenty of room to increase further when the FED cuts interest rates this year. Notably, the strong increase in gold prices often takes place before the FED starts cutting interest rates.
March CPI and PPI - important US inflation data, published next week may also have a strong impact on gold prices next week.
According to forecasts, US CPI in March will increase by about 0.2%. If this data is as expected, or even increases below 0.3%, it will be positive news for gold prices next week, because this data will prompt the FED's plan to cut interest rates in June. to become more convincing. On the contrary, if March CPI increases to 0.4% or higher, it will be a matter of concern. This makes it possible for the FED to continue delaying its plan to cut interest rates, negatively impacting gold prices next week.
📌Technically, gold price has increased beyond the medium-term price increase channel on the weekly chart, which is a positive signal, showing that the gold price increase in the medium and long term will continue. However, the price has gone quite far from the moving averages, while the RSI... is already in the overbought zone. This poses a risk of profit taking for gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support levels for gold prices next week are at 2,250-2,200-2,100 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the 2,400 USD/oz area will be an important resistance zone.
The trading plan for next week will consider the buying watch around 2250, the selling watch around the round resistance mark of 2400.
Nota
Gold bounced above $2,345After adjusting down to nearly $2,300 at the beginning of the Asian session, gold has now rebounded sharply to above $2,345.
Nota
Nota
Is a rate cut in June a certainty, what will the ECB say this week and what do they need to see in upcoming wages data? Is rising oil prices really something to worry about? These are 5 issues that investors want to receive answers from the ECB.Nota
Gold rose above $2,346Gold traded around $2,340 early in the Asian session before rising more than $6 to above $2,346 today.
The market awaits the release of US inflation data tomorrow.
Nota
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↨
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Nota
In the context of continuously escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East, gold prices have continued to rise. The precious metal has now maintained its upward momentum for the third consecutive trading session, as demand for haven assets continues to increase amid the current turmoil.Nota
Gold fell slightly below $2,350After maintaining above $2,353 at the beginning of the European session, gold is now slightly below $2,350
Nota
🔻IMF: Global economic growth will reach 2.8% by 2030, that is, 1% less than the historical average, unless major reforms are made to enhance productivity and take advantage of technology.Nota
The ECB policy decision is the main focus in today's European session, along with the US PPI report. Market expectations for an interest rate cut in June are key to the ECB decision. Bulls anticipate strong data in the US PPI report following yesterday's above-expected CPI report.Dagangan aktif
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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts the Fed will cut interest rates a maximum of two times this yearBlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts the Fed will cut interest rates a maximum of two times this year and containing inflation will be a challenge for this central bank.
CEO Fink told CNBC on Friday after the asset management company released its first-quarter results that he would "consider the target accomplished" if the inflation rate falls to around 2.8% to 3%, which is higher. Fed's 2% target.
Dagangan aktif
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After rising to 2,431 USD/ounce, the highest price in history, gold encountered profit-taking pressure, causing the price of this precious metal to decline sharply. While gold failed to hold above $2,400 an ounce, analysts noted that it remains strong as it prepares to set another weekly record. The new record comes even as markets begin to assess the possibility of an interest rate cut in June after March inflation was higher than expected.
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