Gold Weekly Outlook | NFP Week – September 1–5, 2025

Hello traders,
We enter September with gold consolidating right below the premium supply 3460–3500. This week brings heavy USD events, including NFP, which makes EMAs and structural demand zones critical guides for price reaction.

🔹 Weekly Structural + EMA Confluence

Supply 3460–3500 → premium supply + liquidity pool, decisive resistance.

Demand 3360–3340 → shallow demand, first cushion.

Demand 3280–3250 → stronger accumulation zone, aligning closely with EMA 21 (~3222) = high confluence.

Demand 2850–2800 → deeper demand, above EMA 50 (~3002) as secondary anchor.

EMA 100 (~2605) & EMA 200 (~2230) → far below, ultimate long-term supports.

🔹 Key USD News (Sept 1–5)

Tue → ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices

Wed → JOLTS Job Openings

Thu → ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI

Fri → NFP, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings

💡 Expect traps/liquidity sweeps before Friday → real move likely sets in post-NFP.

🔹 Weekly Progression Map

Bullish:

Break & close above 3460–3500 → upside to 3550–3575, then 3600–3620.

As long as price rides EMA 5, bulls keep control.

Bearish:

Rejection at 3460–3500 → pullback into 3360–3340.

If broken → retest 3280–3250 demand + EMA 21 confluence.

If 3250 fails → extended retracement into 2850 demand + EMA 50 (3002).

🔹 Weekly Bias

Bullish → above 3340, especially if EMA 5 keeps supporting.

Neutral → ranging between 3460 and 3340 (likely pre-NFP).

Bearish shift → only if W1 closes under 3250, opening path to 3000–2850.

🔹 Conclusion

This week’s battle is between 3460–3500 supply and 3340–3250 demand (EMA 21 confluence).

Breakout → upside 3550–3620.

Rejection → pullback into EMA supports.

NFP on Friday will likely decide the final weekly close.

✨ What’s your view for gold this NFP week? Drop your thoughts below 👇
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