September 23rd Gold Trading Strategy:

3 hari lalu

1. Core Driver: Internal Divergence in Federal Reserve Policy
The market is caught in a tug-of-war between differing views among Federal Reserve officials, which forms the core context for gold's fluctuations:

Risk 1 (Dovish): Board Member Milan advocates for a deeper rate cut to support the economy, and traders are betting on another 50 basis point rate cut this year. This expectation is bullish for gold.

Risk 2 (Hawky): Official Mousallem expressed skepticism about further rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation remains above target and that policy complacency must be avoided. If this view prevails, it will be bearish for gold.

2. Technical Analysis: The bullish trend is solid, exhibiting slow growth characteristics.
Trend Prediction: Strong bullish. The price has hit a new record high after a correction, indicating a continuation of the upward trend.

Current Pattern: After last Friday's large bullish breakout, the market has been trading sideways at a high level, representing a healthy "slow rise" pattern, accumulating momentum for further gains. Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3735-$3750
Support: $3708-$3685

III. Today's Trading Strategy
Primary Strategy: Buy on dips
Entry Zone: $3708-$3700
Target Price: $3730-$3740
Stop-Loss: Below $3690

Secondary Strategy: Short on rallies (cautious with a small position)
Strategy: If the price first touches the strong resistance area above $3745-$3750 and shows clear signs of a pullback, consider a small, short-term short position with a stop-loss at $3755.
Note: This is a counter-trend trade with a high risk. Enter and exit quickly and maintain a strict stop-loss.

IV. Summary and Risk Warning
Overall, gold bulls are in the driver's seat, driven by the dual support of expectations for a Fed rate cut and technical breakthroughs. The primary trading strategy should be to buy on dips in line with the trend.

kelmarin

Dagangan aktif

Gold Trend Analysis and Trading Recommendations:

1. Core Driver: Powell's Speech Sets the Direction
The key focus of today's US trading session is undoubtedly Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech. His remarks will directly determine gold's short-term trend.

Dovish scenario (good for gold): If Powell emphasizes the downside risks to the economy or expresses tolerance for inflation temporarily above the target, it will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in October (the probability is currently 90%). This will put pressure on the US dollar and provide strong impetus for rising gold prices.

Hawkish scenario (bad for gold): If Powell downplays inflation concerns, emphasizes the need for policy to be patient and data-dependent, and pours cold water on the market's expectations of aggressive rate cuts, it may trigger a rebound in the US dollar and gold prices will face downward pressure.

2. Technical Analysis: Strong Trend, but Beware of Overbought Conditions
Overall Trend: The technical outlook remains bullish. The Asian and European sessions continued their upward trend, reaching new highs. The 4-hour moving average is in a bullish pattern, with prices trading above the 5-day moving average. The Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating strong upward momentum.

Key Risk: The RSI indicator has entered overbought territory, suggesting a technical correction after a sustained rise. Support level: 3760-3770 area. This is a crucial line of defense in the current uptrend and as long as the price holds this area, the uptrend remains intact.
Resistance/Target: 3780-3790.

IV. Trading Recommendations
Strategy: Buy on pullbacks
Entry Range: 3770-3772
Stop-Loss: 3760 (A break below this key support level could weaken the trend)
Target: 3780-3790

US Trading Alert:
Priority Event: Strictly speaking, the market is likely to remain cautious ahead of Powell's speech, with price fluctuations likely to narrow. The best time to trade is after the content of the speech becomes clear.
Risk Control: Due to the overbought RSI, if the price surges directly and rapidly to the target level, it is not advisable to chase the rally. Consider taking profits in batches.
Contingency plan: If the gold price fails to pull back to around 3770, but directly breaks through the previous high, you should not chase the high, but wait for the next pullback opportunity or new signal.