Gold continues to fluctuate, where will it go next week?

kelmarin

Fundamental analysis:

With the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill officially implemented, the U.S. Treasury may start a "supply flood" of short-term Treasury bonds to make up for the trillions of dollars in fiscal deficits in the future. The market has begun to respond to future supply pressures. Concerns about the oversupply of short-term Treasury bonds have been directly reflected in prices - the yield on 1-month short-term Treasury bonds has risen significantly since Monday this week. A closer look at non-agricultural new jobs exceeded expectations, but nearly half came from government departments, which is likely to reverse in July. Slowing wage growth, declining total working hours, stagnant wage income growth, and worrying consumer spending are all signs of support for gold.

Gold bottomed out and rose from the low of 3245 this week, and then soared all the way to 3365. Finally, the weekly line closed with a positive line with an upper shadow. From the overall trend, after the data is digested, next week will still be treated with a volatile mindset. The large range will focus on the 3280-3393 area. If it does not break, it will still be mainly a sweeping operation. On the daily line, it also closed with a positive line with a long upper shadow, and closed firmly above 3323. It repeatedly tested the pressure of 3345 and did not break and fell back. The structure still maintained an oscillation rhythm within a small range. From the 4-hour cycle, the Bollinger Bands closed significantly. If it opens normally next week, pay attention to the 3325-3315 and 3311 areas when it falls back to support, and pay attention to the 3357 and 3365 positions when it hits the high pressure. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of selling high and buying low in operation and respond to the trend.For more specific operational details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notifications at the bottom 🌐 and follow them in time.

kelmarin

Dagangan aktif

This week's market can be said to be very exciting. In the context of all negative non-farm data, we made arrangements in advance, adhered to the short-selling idea and held positions patiently. In the end, all the declines this week were converted into profits as expected, and the feeling of making a profit is really good. I believe that my friends who follow me can see that we shorted at highs many times and exited all of them with profits. We firmly implemented the plan and trusted the direction of the strategy. The market also gave clear feedback as expected. Patience is the guarantee. We do not go short blindly, nor do we blindly chase longs. We insist on going with the trend and responding flexibly to changes. Only in this way can we move forward steadily in complex market conditions and achieve a sustained and stable profit rhythm.

semalam

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Gold review this week and forecast for next week
This week, the overall gold price has undergone a short-term adjustment in the continuous rise, and the fluctuation shows an N-shaped trend. The overall large-scale fluctuation in the week is 210 US dollars. What are the main reasons for such a large fluctuation pattern? I will summarize it;
The main reasons for the rebound of gold from 3245 to 3365:
1: Tax cut bill stimulus: On July 1, the US Senate passed Trump’s "big and beautiful" tax cut and spending bill, which is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by 3 trillion US dollars in the next decade. This will stimulate inflationary pressure and increase the US debt burden. As a tool to fight inflation and hedge debt risks, gold has become more attractive, and market buying has driven up prices.

2: Trade tensions are heating up: As the deadline for the suspension of trade tariffs on July 9 approaches, the US Treasury Secretary warned that countries may face significantly increased tariff rates, and Trump may also impose higher tariffs on Japan and other countries. Global market concerns about trade frictions have intensified. In order to hedge potential economic risks, the market has invested funds in gold, causing its price to soar.

3: The weakening of the US dollar helped: Market concerns about trade policies and economic slowdown caused the US dollar index to fall. On July 1, the US dollar index hit its lowest point since March 2022, 96.37. Since gold is denominated in US dollars, the weakening of the US dollar has created favorable conditions for the rise in gold prices.

The main reason for the decline of gold from 3365 to 3311:
On July 3, 2025, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June non-farm employment report. The data showed that the number of non-farm employment increased by 147,000, higher than the market's expectation of 106,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the market's expectation of 4.3%. This shows that the performance of the US labor market is stronger than expected, and the positive non-farm data will enhance the market's confidence in the US economy, and then increase the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight policy, making the US dollar index stronger. As an interest-free asset, gold will become less attractive when the US dollar strengthens, and the market will sell gold, causing its price to fall.

🔔For more specific operation details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notification 🌐 at the bottom.