Gold Forms Bearish Triangle with Double Top XAU/USD Short Setup

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๐Ÿง  Full Technical Analysis of XAU/USD โ€“ Bearish Setup from Triangle + Double Top
๐Ÿ• Chart Timeframe: 30-Minutes
๐Ÿ’ฑ Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
๐Ÿ“† Date: April 15, 2025
๐Ÿ“Œ 1. Overall Market Context
Gold (XAU/USD) has been exhibiting a rally followed by compression. After forming a local high near 3,230, price started showing signs of indecision and exhaustion in the bullish momentum. This zone has now become a well-established resistance area where price was repeatedly rejected. This sets the stage for a potential bearish reversal.

๐Ÿ” 2. Key Technical Patterns Identified
๐Ÿ”น Symmetrical Triangle Formation
A classic symmetrical triangle pattern is forming as price makes lower highs and higher lows, indicating that:

Volatility is decreasing

Indecision is rising

Price is coiling up for a potential breakout

These triangles are typically continuation patterns, but when they form after failed breakouts or reversal patterns (like the double top), they can lead to strong counter-trend moves.

๐Ÿ”น Double Top Pattern Inside Triangle (Bearish Signal)
Marked as Top 1 and Top 2, a clear double top has formed at the upper edge of the triangle, aligning with the horizontal resistance zone around 3,228โ€“3,230. This is a textbook bearish reversal structure characterized by:

Two price peaks at the same level

Failing to break higher (bull trap)

Suggests selling pressure is overtaking demand

The presence of this pattern within a triangle adds confluence and increases the probability of a downside breakout.

๐Ÿ“ˆ 3. Support and Resistance Zones
๐Ÿ”บ Resistance Zone (3,228 โ€“ 3,230)
Multiple rejection wicks from this area

Important ceiling for bulls

Bears are clearly defending this level

๐Ÿ”ป Support Zone (3,204 โ€“ 3,206)
Price has previously bounced here, showing signs of demand

Also serves as the first major target area if price breaks the triangle to the downside

๐Ÿ“‰ 4. Trading Setup Overview
โœ… Entry Criteria:
Look for a confirmed breakout below the triangle support line (~3,215)

Preferably on increased volume or strong bearish candle close

Avoid early entries within triangle; wait for confirmation

โŒ Stop Loss (SL):
Placed above the triangleโ€™s upper boundary & resistance zone at 3,240.689

Gives room for noise without invalidating the bearish setup

๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 3,206.111 โ€“ Just above the support line

TP2: 3,205.941 โ€“ A round number and psychological level, also aligns with historical price reaction

โš–๏ธ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R):
Approximately 1:2 or higher

Potential for scaling out: partial profits at TP1, rest held for TP2

๐Ÿ“Š Trade Psychology & Structure
This setup reflects a market behavior shift from bullish to neutral and now leaning bearish:

The double top signals buyer exhaustion

The triangle consolidation suggests indecision but likely continuation of selling pressure post-failure at resistance

Volume and momentum indicators (not shown here) would add more confirmationโ€”ideal for entry timing

Pro traders often wait for breakouts of such triangles post-confirmation of a reversal structure (in this case, the double top) for high-probability entries.

๐Ÿงญ Suggested Trading Plan
Action Level Reason
Entry < 3,215 Bearish breakout confirmation
Stop Loss 3,240.689 Above triangle + resistance
TP1 3,206.111 First support zone
TP2 3,205.941 Key psychological level/support

Penafian

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