Exclusive Gold Trading Strategy for August 4th

3 Ogo

I. Core Driver: Surprise in Non-Farm Payrolls Strengthens Rate Cut Expectations
July's non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations
Market Reaction: Gold Soars, US Dollar Plummets
Gold surged over $60 in a single day (3300 → 3362), breaking through key resistance, and technically shifting to a strong bullish bias.
The US dollar index plummeted, raising the probability of a September rate cut to over 80%, with two rate cuts possible this year.

II. Technical Analysis: Bullish, Watch for Breakthroughs of Key Resistance
Trend Structure
A large bullish candlestick on the daily chart engulfed this week's losses, confirming a breakout above the 3300 level. Short-term targets are 3375-3385.
The MACD golden cross with strong volume and the RSI overbought but not blunted indicate strong upward momentum and potential upside potential after a pullback.

Key Price Levels
Support Levels: 3340-3335 (top-bottom reversal level), 3300 (psychological barrier). Resistance levels: 3375-3385 (previous high), 3400 (round number).

Trading strategy
Primarily buy low: Arrange long positions on dips back to 3340-3345, with a stop-loss below 3330, and a target of 3375 → 3400.

Caution on shorting at highs: Test short positions with a small position at 3380-3390 (in conjunction with overbought signals), with a stop-loss above 3400, and enter and exit quickly.

III. Key events to watch next week
Federal Reserve official speeches
Any dovish signal regarding a September rate cut could boost gold, while hawkish comments could trigger a short-term correction.

IV. Risk warning
Technical correction risk: Gold has seen excessive short-term gains. If the US dollar rebounds or profit-taking occurs, it could fall back to 3330-3340.
Inflation data disruption: If PPI exceeds expectations next week, it could weaken expectations of a rate cut and suppress gold prices. Geopolitics: If tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine escalate, safe-haven demand could push gold above 3400.

V. Summary and Trading Plan
Trend Direction: Bullish in the short term, but be wary of resistance in the 3380-3400 area.
Key Strategies:
Breakout above 3385: Go long, targeting 3400 → 3450.
Break below 3330: Wait and see, waiting for renewed long positions around 3300.
Position Management: Avoid chasing highs; adopt phased entry and trailing stop-loss strategies (e.g., move the stop-loss for a long position at 3340 to 3350).

4 Ogo

Dagangan aktif

August 4th Gold Trading Strategy:

Short-term intraday trading:
Long opportunities: Invest lightly on a pullback to the 3360-3355 area (support from the 4-hour middle line and the lower band of the daily triangle), with a stop-loss below 3345 and a target of 3377-3385. A breakout targets 3393-3410.

Aggressive buying: If the price stabilizes above 3367-3368, consider entering a long position directly, with a target of 3380-3390.

Be cautious with short positions: When the pressure zone of 3393-3410 is first touched, you can try short selling (which needs to be combined with a rapid rise and fall pattern), stop loss at 3415, and target at 3380-3370.

Mid-term strategy:
Primarily buy low: Strategize long positions between 3340-3330 (10-day moving average and triangle support) on the weekly chart, with a stop loss at 3310 and a target of 3460-3470 (upper weekly support). Breakout Follow-up: If the daily close stabilizes above 3410, add to long positions, targeting 3450-3470.

Key Points
Support:
Short-term: 3360-3355 (support from the middle track of the hourly/daily chart triangle)
Strong Support: 3340-3348 (10-day moving average and bullish resistance)

Resistance:
Short-term: 3377-3385 (extension from the non-farm payroll high)
Strong Resistance: 3393-3410 (support from the upper track of the daily chart and previous high)

Logical Analysis
Technical Analysis:
Weekly: A bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow confirms strong buying below 3340, with support from the middle track valid, indicating a bullish medium-term trend.
Daily: A large bullish candlestick breaks through the lower track of the converging triangle, with the MACD forming a golden cross. A break above 3360 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
4-Hour: The moving averages are aligned in a bullish pattern, with 3350-3360 forming a platform support level. There is still upward momentum after a short-term correction.

Fundamentals:
Bullish Factors: Expectations of a September Fed rate cut (CME FedWatch shows a probability exceeding 70%) and geopolitical risks (Middle East/trade tensions) support safe-haven demand.
Negative risks: A short-term rebound in the US dollar (US dollar index resistance at 93.5) and a rise in US Treasury yields may suppress gold price gains.

Risk Warning: If the US dollar rebounds or US Treasury yields break through key resistance (such as 2.0% for the 10-year Treasury), gold could retreat to the 3330-3300 range.

Summary: In the short term, the main strategy for gold is to go long on pullbacks, with a focus on observing the effectiveness of the 3360 support level. A break above 3410 will open up greater space. Traders should flexibly adjust their positions based on data events and maintain strict stop-loss orders.