Daily Outlook | XAUUSD June 30, 2025

Hey traders,
Fresh week, clean structure. Let’s lock in the key levels and let price do the talking.

🌐 Macro Context
It’s a heavy week for USD – all major data drops before Friday:

Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing + Powell speaks

Wednesday: ADP Employment

Thursday: NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services

Friday: US holiday – markets closed

📌 This means liquidity will build into Thursday, then fade. Expect gold to stay range-bound early in the week, unless momentum shifts hard today. Volatility should peak around NFP.

🧭 Daily Structure & Bias
Gold opened weak under 3287, still below 21EMA and 50EMA. The structure shows lower highs, bearish control, and no signs of strength reclaiming ground. RSI is at 42 — momentum down, but not oversold yet. Unless price breaks back above 3340, sellers stay in control.

✅ D1 Bias: Bearish while under 3340

📌 Key D1 Zones to Watch
🔺 D1 Breaker Block – 3340–3355
Former support, now clean resistance. Includes 50EMA and last failed closes. If price rejects again here, bearish continuation likely. A daily close above 3355 flips short bias.

🔺 D1 Supply + FVG – 3385–3405
Unmitigated imbalance from early June. If price pushes through 3355, this is the next upside magnet. Good spot for first reaction.

⚖️ D1 Decision Zone – 3287–3265
Current price zone. Multiple past reactions. A daily close below 3265 confirms breakdown. Holding above = more choppy range.

🟢 D1 Reaction Shelf – 3210–3180
Minor support zone from April candle bodies. Can slow price, but not strong enough for reversal on its own.

🟢 D1 Demand Block – 3155–3120
First major HTF demand. Includes 200EMA, strong structure, and previous breakout base. If price sells into it fast, watch for rejection — but only with confirmation.

🟢 D1 Macro Demand – 3090–3055
Final line of macro defense. Clean imbalance + demand from February. Valid only if sentiment breaks post-NFP.

✅ Final Summary
• Below 3265 = structure breaks → opens 3180
• 3155–3120 = real support zone
• Below 3120 = macro shift risk
• Reclaiming 3340 = short bias invalid
• Break above 3385 = continuation possible

📌 Today is all about the close. No confirmation = no trade. Thursday is the real trigger — be positioned, not exposed.

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