August 27 Gold Analysis
US President Trump announced he would fire Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, accusing him of misconduct in obtaining mortgages. This unprecedented action, if challenged in court, will test the limits of the president's power over an independent monetary policy institution.
01 Political Uncertainty Supports Gold Prices
Trump's direct intervention in the Federal Reserve has created market uncertainty and stimulated safe-haven demand. Historically, such presidential action against Fed officials is rare, and this incident could trigger legal challenges and concerns about institutional stability.
The Federal Reserve's status as an independent institution has been questioned, and investors have sought safe-haven assets. Gold, a traditional safe haven, has found support amid this political uncertainty.
02 Rate Cut Expectations Provide Upward Support
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted last week that a rate cut is possible at the September meeting, noting rising risks in the job market. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market currently prices an over 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
03 Economic Data and Market Focus
Data on Tuesday showed that US durable goods orders fell 2.8% in July, compared to expectations for a 4% drop and following a 9.4% drop in June. While the data beat expectations, it still showed a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity.
Investors are currently awaiting the revised US second-quarter GDP figures to be released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday. These data will provide further clues about the health of the US economy and may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
In particular, the PCE data, as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, will have a significant impact on market expectations. Any signs of weakening inflation could reinforce expectations of rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices.
04 Technical Bullish Pattern Maintained
From a technical analysis perspective, gold quickly fell to a low of $3,351 before a strong rally.
The daily candlestick chart closed strongly above the high, maintaining a strong bullish upward trend.
Gold broke through another new high today. Although it has retreated slightly from its two-week high, the gold bulls remain the primary trend. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands and moving averages are both bullish, indicating that the technical bulls have the upper hand.
Key support below is the 3370-3373 area. Intraday pullbacks to this level remain bullish. The short-term bullish stronghold is located near 3360. If the daily chart stabilizes above this level, a buying trend will continue.
05 Trading Strategy
Gold's medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by political uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts. Any pullback to support levels is likely to attract more buyers.
Key resistance remains at the psychologically important $3400 level. A break above this level could open up opportunities for an upward move towards $3440.
Trading strategy: Buy on dips with strict stop-loss orders. Market volatility may intensify, so closely monitor the development of the dispute between Trump and the Federal Reserve, as well as upcoming important economic data releases.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you a smooth trade!
US President Trump announced he would fire Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, accusing him of misconduct in obtaining mortgages. This unprecedented action, if challenged in court, will test the limits of the president's power over an independent monetary policy institution.
01 Political Uncertainty Supports Gold Prices
Trump's direct intervention in the Federal Reserve has created market uncertainty and stimulated safe-haven demand. Historically, such presidential action against Fed officials is rare, and this incident could trigger legal challenges and concerns about institutional stability.
The Federal Reserve's status as an independent institution has been questioned, and investors have sought safe-haven assets. Gold, a traditional safe haven, has found support amid this political uncertainty.
02 Rate Cut Expectations Provide Upward Support
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted last week that a rate cut is possible at the September meeting, noting rising risks in the job market. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market currently prices an over 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
03 Economic Data and Market Focus
Data on Tuesday showed that US durable goods orders fell 2.8% in July, compared to expectations for a 4% drop and following a 9.4% drop in June. While the data beat expectations, it still showed a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity.
Investors are currently awaiting the revised US second-quarter GDP figures to be released on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday. These data will provide further clues about the health of the US economy and may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
In particular, the PCE data, as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, will have a significant impact on market expectations. Any signs of weakening inflation could reinforce expectations of rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices.
04 Technical Bullish Pattern Maintained
From a technical analysis perspective, gold quickly fell to a low of $3,351 before a strong rally.
The daily candlestick chart closed strongly above the high, maintaining a strong bullish upward trend.
Gold broke through another new high today. Although it has retreated slightly from its two-week high, the gold bulls remain the primary trend. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands and moving averages are both bullish, indicating that the technical bulls have the upper hand.
Key support below is the 3370-3373 area. Intraday pullbacks to this level remain bullish. The short-term bullish stronghold is located near 3360. If the daily chart stabilizes above this level, a buying trend will continue.
05 Trading Strategy
Gold's medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by political uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts. Any pullback to support levels is likely to attract more buyers.
Key resistance remains at the psychologically important $3400 level. A break above this level could open up opportunities for an upward move towards $3440.
Trading strategy: Buy on dips with strict stop-loss orders. Market volatility may intensify, so closely monitor the development of the dispute between Trump and the Federal Reserve, as well as upcoming important economic data releases.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you a smooth trade!
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.