Is it a good time to buy a dip in gold on August 1st?

Core Logic: A strong dollar + a hawkish Fed + strong economic data = gold under pressure

The Fed's policy tone: The July interest rate decision remained unchanged, while Powell's hawkish comments dampened expectations of a rate cut. The market's probability of a September rate cut has fallen below 20%. The US dollar index has broken through 99.99, reaching a new high since late May.

Economic Data Exceeded Expectations:
The strong ADP employment data suggests that the non-farm payroll report may continue to be positive for the US dollar.

PCE inflation data met expectations, but core inflation remained stubborn, reinforcing the Fed's "higher for longer" stance.

Risk aversion is easing: With the implementation of the US-China tariff policy, short-term risk aversion in the market has weakened, and gold has lost support.

Key Technical Signals
Trend Structure
A large weekly bearish candlestick + consecutive daily bearish candlesticks: Bearish dominance. The 3268 low (the lowest level since June 30th) confirms a short-term breakout.

Key Support/Resistance:

Resistance: 3315 (weak rebound resistance on the hourly chart), 3333 (previous high, strong resistance). Support: 3290-3280 (short-term), 3250-3245 (monthly support; a break will accelerate the decline).

Momentum Analysis
Weak rebound: Gold prices fluctuated between 3320 and 3333 on Wednesday before breaking through. Short selling increased after the ADP data and interest rate decision, indicating bearish market sentiment.
Target: If 3250 breaks, the next target is 3200.

Today's Trading Strategy (Trade cautiously before the non-farm payroll report)
1. Short-term Trading (Intraday)
Primarily short at high levels (Core Strategy):
Entry Point: Short with a small position in batches in the 3315-3328 area, with a stop loss above 3335 and a target of 3290-3280.
Add to position: If the price rebounds to around 3333, cover your short position with a stop loss at 3340 and a target of 3250.

Low-cost buying is recommended (quick entry and exit, caution against trend):
Entry point: 3290-3280 for a light long position, stop loss at 3275, target 3310 (short-term rebound only).

2. Medium- to Long-Term Strategy
Conditions: Monthly close with a negative line + negative non-farm payroll data → Target trend short position on a rebound to around 3350, target below 3000.
Risk Warning: If the non-farm payroll data is unexpectedly weak, be wary of a short-term pullback to 3350-3400.

Key Risk Events
Non-farm payroll data:
Geopolitical risks: If Sino-US trade frictions escalate or global risk aversion intensifies, gold may rebound briefly.

Summary and Recommendations
Trend Direction: Short-term bearish trend, 3250 is key support; a break below opens up downside potential.

Key Trading Focus:
Pre-non-farm payroll data: Focus on rebounding highs, 3315-3333 is an ideal short-selling range. After the non-farm payrolls: If the data is negative, you can follow the trend and short; if the data is positive, wait for a rebound before shorting at a high level.

Risk control principles: strictly set stop-loss (especially for counter-trend orders) and avoid heavy positions in non-farm payrolls.

(Note: The market is changing rapidly, so strategies need to be adjusted based on real-time market conditions.)