GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 22 - July 26]
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During the last weekend, the price of 
XAUUSD decreased due to the strengthening of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. The gold market once again ended this week in a key price position, testing key support at the original price point of $2,400/ounce.
Before that, the price of gold hit a record high this past week, largely due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
XAUUSD is now closely correlated with interest rate expectations, and gold's rise to a record high coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will launch its easing cycle in September.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially Non-Yield Gold. yield.
The only thing that could derail gold's fundamental uptrend is a surprise rise in inflation, which would make investors question the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, in reality, recent data along with comments from the Fed all show that the scenario of a sudden increase in inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target is very unlikely.
Investors will have to wait until Friday for the release of the June Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. Last month, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed inflation rising 2.6%.
In addition to key inflation data, the market will first focus on US gross domestic product (GDP) data.
In terms of central bank operations, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Economists believe weaker inflation data will create room for the central bank to cut interest rates.
Economic data to watch next week
Tuesday: Existing home sales
Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy decision, PMI preview, new home sales
Thursday: GDP growth, durable goods orders, weekly unemployment claims
Friday: Core PCE, personal income and expenses
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
Gold has corrected down for three consecutive sessions since its all-time high last week, and now closes weekly at a very important support point, the original price of $2,400.
The level of 2,400USD is both the original price and the horizontal support and the bottom edge of the short-term trend price channel.
Once gold continues to be sold below the original price of 2,400 USD, it will risk falling further with the target level then at the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
However, with the closing position right at 2,400 USD, the short-term technical uptrend from the still undetermined price channel has been broken. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely tilted towards the possibility of price increase.
In the near future, gold has conditions that lean towards an uptrend with main support from EMA21 and the price channel while the short-term trend and short-term support level is at 2,400USD. The recovery target in the near term will initially be noticed at $2,431.
As long as gold remains above EMA21, price drops should only be considered corrective, profit-taking moves in the market without changing the main trend.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,400 – 2,397 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,431USD
📌The short-term trading plan for next week will first consider buying around 2350, selling around 2450.
XAUUSD decreased due to the strengthening of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. The gold market once again ended this week in a key price position, testing key support at the original price point of $2,400/ounce.Before that, the price of gold hit a record high this past week, largely due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
XAUUSD is now closely correlated with interest rate expectations, and gold's rise to a record high coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will launch its easing cycle in September.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially Non-Yield Gold. yield.
The only thing that could derail gold's fundamental uptrend is a surprise rise in inflation, which would make investors question the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, in reality, recent data along with comments from the Fed all show that the scenario of a sudden increase in inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target is very unlikely.
Investors will have to wait until Friday for the release of the June Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. Last month, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed inflation rising 2.6%.
In addition to key inflation data, the market will first focus on US gross domestic product (GDP) data.
In terms of central bank operations, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Economists believe weaker inflation data will create room for the central bank to cut interest rates.
Economic data to watch next week
Tuesday: Existing home sales
Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy decision, PMI preview, new home sales
Thursday: GDP growth, durable goods orders, weekly unemployment claims
Friday: Core PCE, personal income and expenses
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD Gold has corrected down for three consecutive sessions since its all-time high last week, and now closes weekly at a very important support point, the original price of $2,400.
The level of 2,400USD is both the original price and the horizontal support and the bottom edge of the short-term trend price channel.
Once gold continues to be sold below the original price of 2,400 USD, it will risk falling further with the target level then at the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
However, with the closing position right at 2,400 USD, the short-term technical uptrend from the still undetermined price channel has been broken. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely tilted towards the possibility of price increase.
In the near future, gold has conditions that lean towards an uptrend with main support from EMA21 and the price channel while the short-term trend and short-term support level is at 2,400USD. The recovery target in the near term will initially be noticed at $2,431.
As long as gold remains above EMA21, price drops should only be considered corrective, profit-taking moves in the market without changing the main trend.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,400 – 2,397 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,431USD
📌The short-term trading plan for next week will first consider buying around 2350, selling around 2450.
Nota
- After hitting a record high around $2,480 per troy ounce, XAUUSD retraced near support at around $2,400 per troy ounce.- if XAUUSD bounces off the $2,400 per troy ounce support, the price could retest the previous high and reach an all-time high.
- However, if XAUUSD retraces further, the price could test the next support level at around $2,350 per troy ounce.
Nota
Nota
➡️After Biden withdrew from the presidential race... Get to know the most prominent potential candidates against TrumpYesterday, Sunday, the President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, announced his withdrawal from the presidential elections in the United States, which are scheduled to be held next November, after Biden was subjected to strong pressure to leave the presidential race, especially after the primary debate hosted by CNN last month, which ended in favor. Republican candidate Donald Trump wins.
Nota
World gold prices tend to recover after falling in the previous session, losing the mark of 2,400 USD/ounce right after Joe Biden announced he would not run for the next US presidential election.Previously, analysts predicted that after a sharp decline from a peak of 2,482 USD/ounce, gold could witness another sharp decline at any time, when the overbought volume is dominating, especially in if it falls below the psychological mark of 2,400 USD/ounce.
Nota
🟡Gold rises as investors await US economic dataGold prices rose today, Tuesday, as the dollar continues to decline, while investors await US economic data this week that may clarify the US Federal Reserve’s timetable for reducing interest rates.
Gold rose in instant transactions by 0.2%, recording $2,401.22 per ounce. US gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,403.60.
Nota
Data released Tuesday from the US National Association of Realtors showed the number of home sales contracts fell 5.4% from May to 3.89 million units per year. This is the fourth consecutive decrease of this index. The slowdown comes as home prices hit another record in June, with the median sales price rising 4.1% to $426,900 per unit. Surprisingly, prices are still rising even as supply has poured into the market in recent months, but home inventory remains at historically low levels.Nota
World gold prices reversed to increase in the previous session, ending a 4-day losing streak as investors waited for US economic data to be released later this week for more information on the interest rate cut roadmap. interest rate of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).Nota
🔴Gold rises before important data, and breaking this resistance will push it to a new levelGold prices rose on Wednesday, as investors awaited US economic data that may affect the schedule for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
Investors are anticipating key US data this week, including the second-quarter GDP reading on Thursday and the June Personal Consumption Expenditures price index figure on Friday, to provide further signals on the timeline for interest rate cuts.
Nota
Gold plummeted below 2,375 USD during the Asian session Gold price is trading at around $2,375, after falling sharply to $2,370 as bulls failed to defend the $2,400 level.
There are no new catalysts behind the move. Markets await US GDP data released tonight and core PCE data to appear tomorrow.
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