XBTUSD 1H chart (7/24/2019)
Good morning, traders. We saw an initial bounce out of the demand zone only to gain some momentum to push back deeper into it. In doing so, what was originally viewed as a poorly-printed descending broadening wedge has become a much more well-formed descending channel and price is currently knocking at that channel's EQ after bouncing off the bottom of the blue demand zone. Nothing has changed in my outlook at this time as price has done nothing uprising. So far, it continues to move as I suggested traders should watch for it to do.
With the printing of the descending channel traders should look for price to close above channel resistance before entering to limit risk associated with a long entry. This will get price above the H1 21 EMA and set up an initial $535 target above the point of breakout based on the height of the channel (i.e. if price breaks through the descending channel's resistance at $9600 then the initial target would be $10135). If price continues lower first, then the orange and blue demand zones should be watched carefully for a bounce if price falls below the 78.6% retracement at $9519. The S1 pivot sits at the top of the orange zone around $9405. The larger grey demand zone that encompasses them is the daily demand block, which is why we've seen such good reactions out of it.
The H4 RSI has not broken its overhead resistance yet suggesting that if it does it will likely indicate upward progression of price and it remains just a bit above oversold at this time. The H1 RSI has recently bounced out of oversold and is targeting its own overhead resistance. While Stoch RSI remains oversold on the H4, it is bullish on the H1 and targeting overbought. As far as my targets go, the green box should be the generally expected wave B target with the orange box being the occasional wave B extension or possible wave 3. What I mean by that is if price only manages to reach the green box before reversing, then it increases chances significantly that this bounce upward is likely just the X wave of a WXY combo correction. If so, then that would ultimately lead price lower, toward the CME gap fill that traders are obsessing over.
Traders continue to concentrate on the CME gap fill and lower TFs rather than paying attention to the larger TFs. As I have reminded traders, the 3D RSI printed a large hidden bullish divergence between June 3rd and July 21st. It also just pushed through its descending resistance while price continues to find support on the 21 EMA. Stoch RSI remains oversold with RSI still bullish at 52.57. Supply volume has continued dropping significantly throughout this month-long correction which is what we expect to see as the correction plays out. While the last three days has seen slightly increasing volume and slightly increasing candle spread, it has not yet been convincing in terms of continued supply dominance as it remains much lower than the previous price drops around the TR support level. If supply volume becomes noticeably larger with corresponding growth in candle spread, then it becomes of interest re: signalling much lower prices.
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Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
With the printing of the descending channel traders should look for price to close above channel resistance before entering to limit risk associated with a long entry. This will get price above the H1 21 EMA and set up an initial $535 target above the point of breakout based on the height of the channel (i.e. if price breaks through the descending channel's resistance at $9600 then the initial target would be $10135). If price continues lower first, then the orange and blue demand zones should be watched carefully for a bounce if price falls below the 78.6% retracement at $9519. The S1 pivot sits at the top of the orange zone around $9405. The larger grey demand zone that encompasses them is the daily demand block, which is why we've seen such good reactions out of it.
The H4 RSI has not broken its overhead resistance yet suggesting that if it does it will likely indicate upward progression of price and it remains just a bit above oversold at this time. The H1 RSI has recently bounced out of oversold and is targeting its own overhead resistance. While Stoch RSI remains oversold on the H4, it is bullish on the H1 and targeting overbought. As far as my targets go, the green box should be the generally expected wave B target with the orange box being the occasional wave B extension or possible wave 3. What I mean by that is if price only manages to reach the green box before reversing, then it increases chances significantly that this bounce upward is likely just the X wave of a WXY combo correction. If so, then that would ultimately lead price lower, toward the CME gap fill that traders are obsessing over.
Traders continue to concentrate on the CME gap fill and lower TFs rather than paying attention to the larger TFs. As I have reminded traders, the 3D RSI printed a large hidden bullish divergence between June 3rd and July 21st. It also just pushed through its descending resistance while price continues to find support on the 21 EMA. Stoch RSI remains oversold with RSI still bullish at 52.57. Supply volume has continued dropping significantly throughout this month-long correction which is what we expect to see as the correction plays out. While the last three days has seen slightly increasing volume and slightly increasing candle spread, it has not yet been convincing in terms of continued supply dominance as it remains much lower than the previous price drops around the TR support level. If supply volume becomes noticeably larger with corresponding growth in candle spread, then it becomes of interest re: signalling much lower prices.
_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
Penafian
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