50k and 60k are the key levels. Everything else is noise at this point.
Four scenarios:
1. Acceptance above 60k.Bull trap above 60k.
2. Bull trap above 60k.
3. Bear trap below 50k
4. Acceptance below 50k.
Four scenarios:
1. Acceptance above 60k.Bull trap above 60k.
2. Bull trap above 60k.
3. Bear trap below 50k
4. Acceptance below 50k.
Nota
The crowded trade will obviously be long >60k and sell <50k. As long as funding stays flat or negative, I imagine smart money to be long.
Nota
My gut feeling is 50k next, but my brain says 60k until funding picks up.Nota
The crowded trade is obvious as stated above. But selling >60k and buying <50k is where the edge is lies.
Money is made by discounting the obvious.
Nota
Ask me if I hedged between 55-60k like the original plan was? Nope. Fell in love with the idea of longing to a higher area of liquidity (>60k) until funding picks up. Burnt.Nota
Once again my gut feeling is telling me to hedge everything at 
49K, since this type of PA usually marks the top. But my brain tells me that is the crowded trade.Nota
The bearish thing is this is spot driven sell-off. We are at 48k and derivatives still haven't turned negativeNota
I hedged about 30% of my portfolio, I feel that's a must here to stay level-headed.Nota
Bearish re-test of 50k and funding still yet to go negative. Time to hedge more?
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.