XLF Short

On the 15-minute chart for XLF, the broader market structure shows a bearish trend, confirmed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) that occurred near $53.75, where bullish structure shifted to bearish control. Following that CHoCH, price formed consecutive Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the downside—most notably below $53.10 and $52.40—confirming lower lows and reinforcing bearish momentum. This sequence suggests the market is currently in a correction phase within a larger bearish leg, with potential for continuation lower after a retracement.

The supply zone around $53.00–$53.40 has proven to be strong; price previously dropped sharply from this area, showing that sellers stepped in aggressively. The upper supply near $53.90–$54.30 remains unmitigated, adding another layer of resistance if price extends higher. Conversely, the demand zone between $52.00–$52.30 has shown that buyers stepped in with strength once before, causing a noticeable bounce, while the lower demand at $51.50–$51.70 represents the final defense before new lows are made.

Currently, price is approaching the mid-level supply zone around $53.10–$53.30, where a reaction is likely. Price action shows a gradual climb with weakening bullish momentum—smaller candles and diminishing impulse strength—which typically precedes a short-term reversal. The expectation is for a pullback into the $53.10–$53.40 zone, followed by a continuation down toward the $52.10–$52.30 demand region. The trade bias remains bearish, with sellers favored unless price closes decisively above $53.50, which would invalidate the current bearish outlook and suggest a shift back to bullish structure.

Momentum currently favors sellers, as each push up shows exhaustion and limited follow-through