Stellar Price Faces Breakdown Risk as Short-Term Signals Flip Be

XLMUSD.P Stellar (XLM) price is starting to flash warning signals as short-term technicals turn bearish. On the 2-hour chart, the 20-period EMA has crossed below the 50-period EMA; commonly referred to as a death crossover. This pattern often suggests a rise in short-term selling momentum, and XLMUSD.P is already trading just above a fragile support level near $0.38.

If $0.37 fails to hold, the next support sits at $0.33, followed by $0.28. The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) index has flipped negative, reflecting a loss of buying strength and increasing control by bears. Price action aligns with this momentum shift, signaling that buyers are struggling to defend key levels.

Sentiment data adds to the cautious outlook. According to Coinglass, 60.67% of traders are holding short positions on $BINANCE:XLMUSD.P. While this high short interest occasionally triggers short squeezes, in the current setup, it reinforces the bearish structure rather than contradicting it.

On the on-chain side, Stellar’s net exchange flows recently turned positive for the first time in two weeks. This suggests that some holders are moving tokens back to exchanges, typically a prelude to selling. For any recovery to be sustained, XLM must reclaim $0.40 and ideally break above $0.52 to shift the broader trend.