Dow Jones FOMC Analysis As It Relates To Support/Resistances
I have noticed that price action has been revolving around each FOMC.
The Blue circles are each FOMC Wednesday's
The Purple Lines indicate the opening price of that 8 Hour Candle
Each FOMC is connected to each other in price.
The 8 hour candle on the FOMC is used with all 4 prices:
The open
The high
The low
The close
Starting with December 2023:
It opened and proceeded to form a fat bullish candle. The high and the close PLUS the top 1/3 of that candle was used as support for the next 30 days, with the top 1/3 used as the bounce to new highs.
January 2024:
This FOMC was bearish and the opening price of this candle was then used as a mean reversion that price was oscillating around for the next 21 days in a range. Price went to new highs and then used the opening price to find support and bounced right at the same time the next FOMC was going to be released.
March 2024:
This one I am not sure about. It made the same pattern as the December FOMC but was traded through. Price eventually returned all the way down to where at? Almost exactly at the opening price of the December FOMC.
The March FOMC was used as support for the May 10-13th pullback AND resistance for the June 24-July 08 Range.
The September low on the 11th was coincidently CPI and it pulled back ALMOST to the exact price of the March FOMC's opening price.
May 2024:
The opening price of this candle is exactly the price of the high of the December FOMC's candle. The closing price of this candle was used as the support for the May 30th's bounce and the low of August 5th after that nasty sell off. A repeating pattern is price always returns back to a prior FOMC candle but NEVER trades below it. Price is always defended to the last tick. This happened 4 times this year.
June 2024:
This FOMC candle opened up at the EXACT price that the January FOMC candle did. Interesting. The June candle was then used as support for the June 24- July 08 range. It was also used as support and resistance after the August sell off when forming the bottom.
July 2024:
This FOMC candle's high was the exact price of the most recent September's low was. Interesting. I believe the July FOMC was used as a catalyst to sell off to take prices back down to the May FOMC as intended.
September 2024:
Finally, we reach our most current FOMC that has passed. The high of that candle has been performing the same as the January FOMC candle in that it is being a mean reversion and price is trading around that median price.
If the pattern is to be continued where upon they are defending higher and higher FOMC prices, then the last two to be defended are the July and September FOMC prices. That means that if they are defending these prices that price CANNOT go below 40,300 and that the CPI September 11th Low IS the Low.
The Blue circles are each FOMC Wednesday's
The Purple Lines indicate the opening price of that 8 Hour Candle
Each FOMC is connected to each other in price.
The 8 hour candle on the FOMC is used with all 4 prices:
The open
The high
The low
The close
Starting with December 2023:
It opened and proceeded to form a fat bullish candle. The high and the close PLUS the top 1/3 of that candle was used as support for the next 30 days, with the top 1/3 used as the bounce to new highs.
January 2024:
This FOMC was bearish and the opening price of this candle was then used as a mean reversion that price was oscillating around for the next 21 days in a range. Price went to new highs and then used the opening price to find support and bounced right at the same time the next FOMC was going to be released.
March 2024:
This one I am not sure about. It made the same pattern as the December FOMC but was traded through. Price eventually returned all the way down to where at? Almost exactly at the opening price of the December FOMC.
The March FOMC was used as support for the May 10-13th pullback AND resistance for the June 24-July 08 Range.
The September low on the 11th was coincidently CPI and it pulled back ALMOST to the exact price of the March FOMC's opening price.
May 2024:
The opening price of this candle is exactly the price of the high of the December FOMC's candle. The closing price of this candle was used as the support for the May 30th's bounce and the low of August 5th after that nasty sell off. A repeating pattern is price always returns back to a prior FOMC candle but NEVER trades below it. Price is always defended to the last tick. This happened 4 times this year.
June 2024:
This FOMC candle opened up at the EXACT price that the January FOMC candle did. Interesting. The June candle was then used as support for the June 24- July 08 range. It was also used as support and resistance after the August sell off when forming the bottom.
July 2024:
This FOMC candle's high was the exact price of the most recent September's low was. Interesting. I believe the July FOMC was used as a catalyst to sell off to take prices back down to the May FOMC as intended.
September 2024:
Finally, we reach our most current FOMC that has passed. The high of that candle has been performing the same as the January FOMC candle in that it is being a mean reversion and price is trading around that median price.
If the pattern is to be continued where upon they are defending higher and higher FOMC prices, then the last two to be defended are the July and September FOMC prices. That means that if they are defending these prices that price CANNOT go below 40,300 and that the CPI September 11th Low IS the Low.
Nota
Nota
Using the December FOMC candle as the anchor for volume profile you can see the following I lay out
Nota
Going over 2023's FOMC's, you can see they are released at around the same price area right in the middle of that range.
Nota
As you can see, The November 2023 FOMC was the start of the next leg in the bullish move higher and it was at this point that they relentlessly defended each prior FOMC's opening price. Price did not violate a prior FOMC open all the way up to our current day in October.
Nota
The next FOMC price to be defended is the July FOMC at 41,300. The opening price of the July FOMC was used as support and resistance for the CPI bottom. Price should return to almost to the open but NOT trade through it.
Penafian
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