Corn at the Cliff Edge: Bearish Breakdown or Smart Money Trap?
📉 1. Price Action & Technical Context (Weekly Chart – ZC1!)
Price is currently sitting around 439'0, after rejecting the 462'2 supply zone (gray block) and confirming rejection from the macro supply area between 472'6–480'0 (red block).
The last four weekly candles show a failed recovery attempt (three green candles trapped between two strong red ones), culminating in a bearish breakout below the intermediate demand zone (445'0–442'0).
Now, price is back inside the key demand zone between 439'0–433'4, an area with heavy volume and previous significant lows.
🔍 Technical takeaway: Bearish breakout confirmed. Price is testing the last major weekly support before opening the door toward the yearly lows (~420'0).
📊 2. Commitment of Traders (COT Report – May 27, 2025)
Non-Commercials (Speculators):
Long: 324,377 (▼ -17,952)
Short: 344,710 (▼ -9,171)
Net Position: -20,333 → Bearish, but the unwinding of both sides suggests profit-taking.
Commercials (Institutions):
Long: 766,211 (▲ +12,588)
Short: 713,647 (▼ -962)
Net Position: +52,564 → Increasing → Institutional accumulation.
🔎 Key observation: Commercials are increasing their net longs, while speculators are reducing exposure. This diverges from price action and may signal institutional accumulation under 440.
📉 3. Net Positioning vs Price (COT Chart)
The chart shows a clear decline in speculative longs since March, with a new low this week.
Meanwhile, commercials are gradually increasing their long exposure, positioning themselves against the current bearish trend.
💡 Combined view: While price keeps dropping, the "smart money" is accumulating → possible bottom forming, though not yet confirmed technically.
🌾 4. Seasonality
June Performance:
20-Year Avg: -4.25%
15-Year Avg: +12.31%
5-Year Avg: +1.15%
2-Year Avg: +28.61%
📈 Seasonal Conclusion: The seasonal bias has turned strongly bullish in the last 2–5 years. June–July is often a rally period for Corn following the late-May bottoms — likely tied to U.S. planting season dynamics.
Price is currently sitting around 439'0, after rejecting the 462'2 supply zone (gray block) and confirming rejection from the macro supply area between 472'6–480'0 (red block).
The last four weekly candles show a failed recovery attempt (three green candles trapped between two strong red ones), culminating in a bearish breakout below the intermediate demand zone (445'0–442'0).
Now, price is back inside the key demand zone between 439'0–433'4, an area with heavy volume and previous significant lows.
🔍 Technical takeaway: Bearish breakout confirmed. Price is testing the last major weekly support before opening the door toward the yearly lows (~420'0).
📊 2. Commitment of Traders (COT Report – May 27, 2025)
Non-Commercials (Speculators):
Long: 324,377 (▼ -17,952)
Short: 344,710 (▼ -9,171)
Net Position: -20,333 → Bearish, but the unwinding of both sides suggests profit-taking.
Commercials (Institutions):
Long: 766,211 (▲ +12,588)
Short: 713,647 (▼ -962)
Net Position: +52,564 → Increasing → Institutional accumulation.
🔎 Key observation: Commercials are increasing their net longs, while speculators are reducing exposure. This diverges from price action and may signal institutional accumulation under 440.
📉 3. Net Positioning vs Price (COT Chart)
The chart shows a clear decline in speculative longs since March, with a new low this week.
Meanwhile, commercials are gradually increasing their long exposure, positioning themselves against the current bearish trend.
💡 Combined view: While price keeps dropping, the "smart money" is accumulating → possible bottom forming, though not yet confirmed technically.
🌾 4. Seasonality
June Performance:
20-Year Avg: -4.25%
15-Year Avg: +12.31%
5-Year Avg: +1.15%
2-Year Avg: +28.61%
📈 Seasonal Conclusion: The seasonal bias has turned strongly bullish in the last 2–5 years. June–July is often a rally period for Corn following the late-May bottoms — likely tied to U.S. planting season dynamics.
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My trade on Corn
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
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Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.