Analysis techniques – Soybean Futures (Nov 2025)

30 Sep

Date: 30/09/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZSX25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Soybean futures (Nov 2025) remain under pressure after failing to hold the 10,500 resistance. Prices are trading below 10,200 and are testing the psychological 10,000 level, with risks of retesting the 9,790 support. The dominant trend remains bearish.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 10,160 – 10,500 – 10,750
Support: 10,000 – 9,790 – 9,610

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: The bearish momentum persists, with consecutive red candles confirming seller dominance.
Trading volume: No major spikes, but sellers remain in control.
Wave structure: A new bearish wave is unfolding, with 9,790 as the immediate target.
Confirmation signals: A recovery above 10,160 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.

4. VNC Intelligence Strategic View
With the U.S. 2025 harvest nearing completion and expectations for strong yields, supply pressure remains elevated. Meanwhile, slower Chinese demand adds to the bearish tone. Only unexpected weather disruptions or acreage cuts in 2026 planting could shift sentiment back to bullish.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies

Primary Short Setup:

Entry: 10,050 – 10,100
TP: 9,790
SL: 10,220
Probability: 65%

Counter-trend Long Setup:
Entry: 9,790 – 9,810
TP: 10,050
SL: 9,610
Probability: 50%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Importers may consider gradual buying around 9,800 – 9,790 to secure costs, while U.S. farmers are advised to lock in partial sales near 10,100 – 10,200 to protect margins amid a prevailing bearish environment.

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Analysis techniques – Soybean Futures (Nov 2025)
Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZSX25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Soybean futures (Nov 2025) closed at 10,220 cents/bushel, flat (-0.02%) on Oct 3. After dipping below 10,000 earlier in the week and rebounding from the 9,800 – 9,790 strategic support, prices have regained balance above 10,160.
The structure suggests a short-term recovery wave is underway. Sustained buying could target 10,500 resistance; failure to hold 10,160 would reignite bearish pressure.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 10,160 – 10,500 – 10,750
Support: 10,000 – 9,790 – 9,610

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: Recovery from the 9,790 low is forming; holding above 10,160 supports the bullish case.
Trading volume: Buying interest has increased after the retest of lows, confirming demand at discounted levels.
Wave structure: The decline from 10,750 may have ended; a corrective rally toward 10,500 is building.
Confirmation signals: A daily close above 10,230 – 10,250 would confirm the rebound and open the path to 10,500.

4. VNC View
In the short term, soybeans are staging a technical recovery after bearish pressure from stock reports. Medium term, prices remain driven by U.S. output and South American planting progress. The 10,500 level is critical to define the 2–3 week outlook. Failure to break above could trigger another test of 9,790.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 10,160 – 10,200
TP: 10,500
SL: 10,000
Probability: 65%

Short Setup (resistance failure):
Entry: 10,480 – 10,500
TP: 10,160
SL: 10,600
Probability: 50%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance

Importers: Delay fresh purchases until prices break 10,500 to avoid buying into resistance.
U.S. farmers: Should lock in partial hedges if prices rebound toward 10,500.
Processors: Stay neutral; increase coverage only if prices hold firmly above 10,500.