Russell 2000 Small Caps (IWM) Breakout cup and handle on RUTRussell 2000 Small Caps TVC:RUT and AMEX:IWM on the Cusp of a Breakout?
The Russell 2000 small-cap index, tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), is forming a cup and handle pattern. This technical formation could be indicative of a significant breakout.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $230-$232
Support: $220-$222
A decisive close above $234 confirmed the breakout, potentially leading to further upside. Conversely, a failure to hold above $220 could negate the pattern.
Keep a close eye on IWM as it navigates this critical juncture.
IWM
#TheStrat Weekly/Monthly Setups For DecemberSPY - Closed previous D/W/M close to HOD after making new ATH, so the D/W/M all finished bright green. No evidence of sellers anywhere since every TF above the 60 is currently green. 60 closed slight green, but this can easily be justified as eod corrective activity since all 60 min candles before the last one of the day were green, and every TF above the 60 is green. Going into the new week and month, we can expect buying to continue until we see a lower low on the D, but the real sign of buyers vanishing / sellers gaining control for me will be a Lower Low on the weekly.
Main Monthly Setups To Watch:
Bullish :
DKNG - 1-2-2 Q revstrat in force, 1-3 M, 2-1 W
PM - Hammer 3-1 M
BA - Counter Hammer Failed 2D M
MRK - Hammer M at Downside Exhaustion Level
Bearish:
MU - Shooter 1-3 M, Failed 2U W
ZIM - Rev Strat M at Upside Exhaustion
Main Weekly Setups To Watch:
Bullish:
RTX - 3-1-1 W
PLTR - MoMo Hammer W, Inside D
GOOG - RevStrat Hammer D, Inside W
Bearish:
GAP - 3-1 at Exhaustion
COIN - 2-1 W, Failed 2U D
PINS - Shooter RevStrat Week, Shooter Inside D
RDDT - Inside W (11 Consecutive Weekly HLs)
SQ - Red Inside D/W at Q Exhaustion
Opening (IRA): IWM Dec 20th 195 Covered Call... for a 193.79 debit.
Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in the December 20th expiry at a strike that is slightly higher than the one I just took off to "capture" the next little increment of up move that I missed out on. I'm not expecting much out of this (it has a 1.21 max), but didn't want to set up my tent in January yet either.
2025 is the year of the SMALL CAPS! 26% Higher2025 is the year of the SMALL CAPS! 26% Higher
Russell 2000 - AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA 🤏🧢
2025 is the year of the SMALL CAPS!
While some are saying the Small Caps run is over, I say we are going 26% HIGHER!!!
You have to understand that the Russell has lagged the ENTIRE market over the last two plus years and they have a lot of catching up to do. You either get that through AMEX:IWM running up to the NASDAQ:QQQ , the Q's falling down to meet the Russell, or them meeting halfway.
I believe we are going to get a decent size pullback on the Q's eventually but for right now I say the Russell runs FAST to catch the runner that is fading.
The chart also tells us everything we need to know.
- H5 Indicator is GREEN
- Cup n Handle Breakout with a successful retest...You now what comes next! ☝️
- Wr% has it's consolidation box and is thriving.
- Free roam on the ATH's space 🐔
🎯 $259
📏 $306
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Holiday Markets and All Markets Spot CheckLimited trading for the remainder of the week in the US with Thanksgiving
We've notched a few all-time highs in the US markets but without any major surges. Low volume and light activity have been pretty apparent as the post election rips have settled down somewhat.
US data still in line before FOMC on Dec 18. Current FED Watch Tool showing a 64% probability of the FED still cutting 25 bps before end of year. This will be an important message from the FED to the markets on how the FED plans to adjust monetary policy in 2025 (pause, hold, cut, hike).
DXY and USD related crosses showing signs of nice movement (weaker dollar). Let's see if that is a stronger reversal pattern with follow through as many USD pairs are at strong support/resistance levels to show some reactions.
I'm not aggressively positioning on anything currently. If the melt-up continues, it's pretty easy and steady gains. If we have any flinch or pullback before end of year, I'll have my hedges in profit to help offset drawdowns. The best path for me is management both ways and inexpensive protection to the downside.
Thanks for watching!!!
Entering a Bull Market for the Russell 2000From a weekly chart perspective, the Russell 2000 ETF is showing a rounded bottom formation. Coupled with Trump-era policies encouraging reshoring and boosting local consumption, this has been a positive catalyst for small-cap stocks.
While the S&P 500 remains strong, the Nasdaq, particularly tech stocks like semiconductors, has already experienced varying degrees of pullback.
Market insights & Where we are heading on the $QQQ $SPY $IWM 📊 Market Insights & Future Trends: NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
In this must-watch video, we’re diving deep into:
Market Direction: Projections for where the markets are heading this week into year-end.
Potential Catalysts: Key events and factors that could cause significant market shifts.
My Secret Tools & Strategies: An inside look at the methods I use to anticipate market moves.
Ready to get ahead of the game? Let’s dive in and uncover the insights you need to stay informed and strategic!
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Opening (IRA): IWM Nov 15th 194 Covered Call... for a 192.28 debit.
Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in November with a strike that is slightly higher than what I previously had on at the 193. (See Post Below). Just looking to get a little more out of the November cycle before moving onto December without taking on a ton of additional risk ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 192.28
Max Profit: 1.72
ROC at Max: .89%
50% Max: .81
ROC at 50% Max: .45%
Russell 2000 On verge of breakoutof a continuation inverse head & shoulders
these projections are IMHO likely to be the final nail in the coffin for this massive bull run
one of the complaints from Analysts is the lack of breath in the market
well when the russell reaches these projections
these analysts will likely claim victory and say see NOW we have a real bull market
which is when you should be seeking shelter as when the last bears are bullish it means there is no one left to convince.
And after 16 years from the 2009 bottom would be a fitting end to the secular bull
With a Trump victory likely ..
The Dems will in all likelihood prefer to leave him a big mess to clean up than a booming economy.
IWM: Cup, Handle, and a Bullish GambleAMEX:IWM
Original Chart :
Been eyeing IWM lately, and honestly, this setup has the kind of potential that could get even the most cynical trader to sit up and pay attention. We’re looking at the *beginning* of a cup-and-handle-esque pattern so pristine it belongs in a TA textbook—classic accumulation followed by consolidation, like the bulls are quietly gearing up for something big. But here’s where it gets even more interesting: with the recent US election in the rearview and a lineup of Fibonacci extensions and moving averages all pointing in the same direction, this setup is practically begging for a breakout. Let’s dive into the details.
Fibonacci Extensions and Price Targets
Let’s talk targets. I’m looking at $315 and $365 based on Fibonacci extensions, and yes, that $365 target might sound ambitious, but hear me out. Fibs are like the star charts for traders—rooted in math, mystical enough for Twitter hype, and strangely accurate. $315 is the conservative target, sitting right around the 100% extension, where we might see price take a breather. But the real spotlight is on $365, the 200% extension level, which could be where we end up if this breakout goes full send. If Fibonacci levels have taught us anything, it’s that the universe loves a good price projection.
Moving Averages and the Golden Cross
Then there’s the 50-day and 200-day moving average crossover—the infamous “golden cross,” which might sound like something out of an Indiana Jones movie, but actually just signals bullish momentum. We’ve got price hanging above both moving averages, a classic recipe for sustained upward trends. Historically, this setup has a decent track record of making bulls look smart, and right now, it’s flashing green like a big, neon sign saying, “This way to higher prices.”
Volume Profile and Key Levels between $200-$240
The Volume Profile is where things get interesting. That $200-$240 range is showing a massive amount of trading activity, acting like a gravity well for price. If IWM revisits this range and bounces around $235, that’s our green light for lift-off. This is the make-or-break level—the battleground where bulls and bears duke it out. Here’s the nuance: if price *rejects* $235 and consolidates, that’s what would actually form the handle of this cup-and-handle setup, setting the stage for a later breakout. If $235 holds, we’re looking at a more direct path upwards. If not, well… it might be time to rethink the moonshot narrative.
Mapping Out the Bullish Scenarios
So, we’re left with two paths. Path one is the steady grind up to our targets, where IWM just slowly marches its way to $315 and then potentially $365, no drama, just smooth sailing. Path two is the extended consolidation phase in the $200-$240 range through most of 2025, creating that classic “handle” structure. Think of it as the market getting in some much-needed cardio before the sprint. By end-Q1 2025, we should know which scenario is unfolding based on whether we hold above that $235 line.
Curious to see if anyone else is seeing the same potential here. The combination of a cup-and-handle formation in the works, Fib extensions, and moving averages feels like a recipe for something substantial, but I’m always down to hear different perspectives. Are you all vibing with the $365 target, or is that too much hopium?
$IWM $RTY : Small Caps Ready to Explode! 💥 Small Caps Ready to Explode! 💥
We will be at ATH's this week: AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA CAPITALCOM:RTY
While everyone is buzzing about NASDAQ:TSLA CRYPTOCAP:BTC and how they will continue to skyrocket if election results stick and continue to favor Trump, no one’s talking about SMALL CAPS! Remember, during his last term, small caps had an impressive run. Let’s dive into the technicals in my latest video.
In this video, we cover:
1️⃣ Technical Analysis: We’ll analyze charts and multiple indicators, all pointing to AMEX:IWM heading HIGHER. 📈
2️⃣ Patterns: A massive multi-year cup and handle pattern with an ascending triangle breakout is in play.
Drop a comment below if you learned something new or want to explore any topics further.
Stay tuned for more insights and show some love!
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CAPITALCOM:RTY AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA
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$QS : A QUANITIFIED SWING SETUP! 80%+ MOVE LOOMING! NYSE:QS A QUANITIFIED SWING SETUP! 👊
NASDAQ:TSLA DEAL INBOUND?!
3 Reasons Why in this Video: 📹
1⃣ My "High Five Trade Setup" strategy
2⃣ Catalyst: #QuantumScape started shipping Battery cells to carmakers and had price target increased to $7
3⃣ Symmetrical Triangle Breakout (MM: 80%+)
Company Overview:
QuantumScape Corp, a company focused on developing next-generation battery technology for electric vehicles (EVs) and other applications.
Video analysis 3/5 dropping today. Stay tuned!🔔
Like ♥️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂
Are they gonna be a batter cell goliath in this space?! Comment below if you are a believe in NYSE:QS
Not financial advice.
AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:IBRX NASDAQ:UPXI NASDAQ:WULF #ElectricVehicles #TradingSignals #TradingTips #options #optiontrading #StockMarket #stocks
Russell 2k looks very good, even with rising YieldDaily
The TVC:RUT looks okay, slowly grinding higher.
Spreading the chart out, it's still forming the, usually bullish, Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern.
Had this on a daily & weekly but the chart we see here is for the monthly (see profile for more info on where to get more data)
it is easier to see the pattern on the Weekly chart. Interesting.
However, we see something interesting on a monthly.
Monthly it looks similar to 2008 to 2010
AMEX:IWM
Opening (IRA): IWM October 18th 199 Monied Covered Call... for a 196.80 debit.
Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in the October 18th cycle. I left some money on the table by taking profit early. However, I don't want to be as aggressive as I usually am from a delta standpoint, since I already made money in the cycle, albeit after somewhat of a rollercoaster July/August.
Instead of selling the -75 delta call against as I usually do, I'm selling the -84 against, resulting in a net delta metric of around 16. The 16 delta strike is associated with 2 x the expected move, which is why I'm choosing that short call strike ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 196.80
Max Profit: 2.20
ROC at Max: 1.12%
50% Max: 1.10
ROC at 50% Max: .56%
I'll generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call out if and when the setup converges on +30 delta.
75% gains BUY/HOLD IWM/RUS2K C*H trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2daily chart for IWM . Entering re-accumulation stage now, expecting range bound trading during next fer months. We've hit heavy overhead resistace / limited upside currently.
🔸The speculative chart pattern is bullish C*H in progress, expect more range locked price action for a few months as we re-accumulate and get ready to clear the ATH. Measured move price projectiong for the C*H structure is 350 USD, 75% upside from the recommended BUY ZONE.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for IWM to re-accumulate in the sliding
bull flag formation and get ready to BUY/HOLD low near 200 USD, target
based on measured move projection is 350 USD. good luck traders!
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US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs
Dow has failed to make all-time highs
Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs
Russell has failed to make any new highs
Oil rips on Middle East escalations
Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong)
I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items
I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries
Major News this week
-US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI)
-Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others
Thanks for watching!!!
FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds.
Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025.
The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term.
Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
RUT2K Short-Term Selloff Likely After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven’t seen my RUT 2000 prediction for 2024:
Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision looms, speculation is rising that we may see a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically a positive for equities, this aggressive move could lead to a short-term selloff, particularly in smaller-cap stocks, represented by the RUT Russell 2000.
The reasoning is tied to the market's well-known "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior. With expectations already priced in for a 25 bps cut, a surprise 50 bps cut could trigger concerns over economic health, prompting investors to de-risk. This would likely lead to a temporary selloff in riskier, smaller-cap stocks, with RUT2K potentially taking a hit in the near term.
Given this outlook, I’m considering the $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024. These options could provide a solid hedge or a potential profit opportunity if the market reacts negatively to the Fed’s decision in the short term, as I expect smaller-cap stocks to feel the pressure more acutely than large-cap counterparts.
Despite this expected volatility, the broader market should recover before the end of the month, once investors fully digest the news. By November 5th, on U.S. election day, we could even see new all-time highs in major indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Small caps, however, may take longer to rebound, adding further value to a short-term put position in IWM.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears motivated to support a strong market ahead of the elections, which could benefit Democrats. Former President Donald Trump has indicated he would not reappoint Powell if he returns to office, potentially giving Powell incentive to maintain market stability leading up to November.
In summary, while a larger-than-expected rate cut could cause IWM ( Russell 2000 ETF ) to face short-term turbulence, the market will likely stabilize by the end of September. The $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, offer a timely opportunity for traders seeking to capitalize on this brief volatility.
Opening (IRA): IWM Oct 18th 192/214/214/236 Iron Fly... for an 11.61 credit.
Comments: Highest IV of broad market ETF's at 27.6%. More small stuff (relatively speaking) while I twiddle my thumbs waiting on other October setups ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: 10.39
Max Profit: 11.61
ROC at Max: 111.74%
25% Max: 2.90
ROC at 25% Max: 24.98%
Will generally look to take profit at 25% max.
Russell/SPX Divergence Indicating a Market Cycle TopThe stock market continues to make new highs and is finishing the final touches in this topping process. The problem is the Russell is failing to make new highs. We can see before every stock market crash was accompanied with the SPX/NDX/DJI making new highs while the Russell makes a lower high. This occurred during 2008, 2022, and it could be happening right as we speak. The Russell failing to make new highs suggest that the topping process is underway and we will be getting a powerful stock market crash.
Nasdaq already in a Bear Market Hello everyone,
We are currently in a topping process and chances are July 10, 2024 was the top for the Nasdaq (NDX). I believe that we will fill the gap before entering the bear market. A confirmation of a lower high on NDX and a higher high on SPX would show a clear divergence confirming a market top. It's clear that the Russell (IWM) is not making new highs and showing a clear divergence from SPX and NDX making new highs suggesting this is the top. NDX may have already entered a bear market and will not be making new highs and this is simply an ABC corrective wave up before making new lows.
TLDR: NDX ABC CORRECTIVE WAVE UP BEFORE NEW LOWS; NDX WILL MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND SPX NEW HIGHS WILL CONFIRM THIS A MARKET TOP
US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week.
10 year average for September is -.9%
70 year average for September is -.7%
We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment).
This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year.
Long-term investors the game is simple
Short-term investors are all over the place
Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly.
Enjoy the weekend!!!