Dow Theory Trend Strategy

Dow Theory Trend Strategy (Pine Script)

Overview

This Pine Script implements a trading strategy based on the core principles of Dow Theory. It visually identifies trends (uptrend, downtrend) by analyzing pivot highs and lows and executes trades when the trend direction changes. This script is an improved version that features refined trend determination logic and strategy implementation.

Core Concept: Dow Theory

The script uses a fundamental Dow Theory concept for trend identification:

Uptrend: Characterized by a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL).
Downtrend: Characterized by a series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL).
How it Works

Pivot Point Detection:

It uses the built-in ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions to identify significant swing points (potential highs and lows) in the price action.
The pivotLookback input determines the number of bars to the left and right required to confirm a pivot. Note that this introduces a natural lag (equal to pivotLookback bars) before a pivot is confirmed.
Improved Trend Determination:

The script stores the last two confirmed pivot highs and the last two confirmed pivot lows.
An Uptrend (trendDirection = 1) is confirmed only when the latest pivot high is higher than the previous one (HH) AND the latest pivot low is higher than the previous one (HL).
A Downtrend (trendDirection = -1) is confirmed only when the latest pivot high is lower than the previous one (LH) AND the latest pivot low is lower than the previous one (LL).
Key Improvement: If neither a clear uptrend nor a clear downtrend is confirmed based on the latest pivots, the script maintains the previous trend state (trendDirection := trendDirection[1]). This differs from simpler implementations that might switch to a neutral/range state (e.g., trendDirection = 0) more frequently. This approach aims for smoother trend following, acknowledging that trends often persist through periods without immediate new HH/HL or LH/LL confirmations.
Trend Change Detection:

The script monitors changes in the trendDirection variable.
changedToUp becomes true when the trend shifts to an Uptrend (from Downtrend or initial state).
changedToDown becomes true when the trend shifts to a Downtrend (from Uptrend or initial state).
Visualizations

Background Color: The chart background is colored to reflect the currently identified trend:
Blue: Uptrend (trendDirection == 1)
Red: Downtrend (trendDirection == -1)
Gray: Initial state or undetermined (trendDirection == 0)
Pivot Points (Optional): Small triangles (shape.triangledown/shape.triangleup) can be displayed above pivot highs and below pivot lows if showPivotPoints is enabled.
Trend Change Signals (Optional): Labels ("▲ UP" / "▼ DOWN") can be displayed when a trend change is confirmed (changedToUp / changedToDown) if showTrendChange is enabled. These visually mark the potential entry points for the strategy.
Strategy Logic

Entry Conditions:
Enters a long position (strategy.long) using strategy.entry("L", ...) when changedToUp becomes true.
Enters a short position (strategy.short) using strategy.entry("S", ...) when changedToDown becomes true.
Position Management: The script uses strategy.entry(), which automatically handles position reversal. If the strategy is long and a short signal occurs, strategy.entry() will close the long position and open a new short one (and vice-versa).
Inputs

pivotLookback: The number of bars on each side to confirm a pivot high/low. Higher values mean pivots are confirmed later but may be more significant.
showPivotPoints: Toggle visibility of pivot point markers.
showTrendChange: Toggle visibility of the trend change labels ("▲ UP" / "▼ DOWN").
Key Improvements from Original

Smoother Trend Logic: The trend state persists unless a confirmed reversal pattern (opposite HH/HL or LH/LL) occurs, reducing potential whipsaws in choppy markets compared to logic that frequently resets to neutral.
Strategy Implementation: Converted from a pure indicator to a strategy capable of executing backtests and potentially live trades based on the Dow Theory trend changes.
Disclaimer

Dow Theory signals are inherently lagging due to the nature of pivot confirmation.
The effectiveness of the strategy depends heavily on the market conditions and the chosen pivotLookback setting.
This script serves as a basic template. Always perform thorough backtesting and implement proper risk management (e.g., stop-loss, take-profit, position sizing) before considering any live trading.