Gold Valuation

15 Mei

Gold Value Index


The Gold Value Index (GVI) is a macro-driven oscillator that estimates the relative value of gold based on real-time movements in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-Year US Treasury Yield (US10Y). It helps traders contextualize gold’s price within broader macroeconomic pressure — identifying when gold may be over- or undervalued relative to these key drivers.

How It Works – Macro Inputs:

DXY (US Dollar Index): Typically moves inversely to gold. A rising dollar suggests downward pressure on gold value.

US10Y Yield: Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading to weaker gold prices.

Both inputs are Z-score normalized and inverted to reflect their typical negative correlation with gold. When combined, they form a single, scaled index from 0 (undervalued) to 100 (overvalued).

Why Use This Tool?

Gold reacts to macro forces as much as technical ones. The GVI blends these inputs into a clear, visual gauge to:

Anticipate mean-reversion setups.

Avoid emotionally-driven trades in extreme macro conditions.

Enhance timing by understanding gold's macro context.

Important Notes:

Data sources include ICEUS:DXY and TVC:US10Y via TradingView.

Code is protected — this is a private, invite-only script.

15 Mei

Nota Keluaran

Gold Value Index – Invite-Only Script


The Gold Value Index (GVI) is a macro-driven oscillator that estimates the relative value of gold based on real-time movements in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-Year US Treasury Yield (US10Y). It helps traders contextualize gold’s price within broader macroeconomic pressure — identifying when gold may be over- or undervalued relative to these key drivers.

How It Works – Macro Inputs:

DXY (US Dollar Index): Typically moves inversely to gold. A rising dollar suggests downward pressure on gold value.

US10Y Yield: Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading to weaker gold prices.

Both inputs are Z-score normalized and inverted to reflect their typical negative correlation with gold. When combined, they form a single, scaled index from 0 (undervalued) to 100 (overvalued).

Why Use This Tool?

Gold reacts to macro forces as much as technical ones. The GVI blends these inputs into a clear, visual gauge to:

Anticipate mean-reversion setups.

Avoid emotionally-driven trades in extreme macro conditions.

Enhance timing by understanding gold's macro context.

Important Notes:

Data sources include ICEUS:DXY and TVC:US10Y via TradingView.

Code is protected — this is a private, invite-only script.

19 Mei

Nota Keluaran

Gold Value Index (Macro-Weighted Oscillator)

The Gold Value Index (GVI) is a macro-informed oscillator that measures gold’s valuation in real-time relative to core macroeconomic forces — the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y). The tool is designed to help traders time gold mean-reversion trades, avoid FOMO during extremes, and gain macro context for technical setups.

How It Works – Components:
Z-Score Normalization:
Both DXY and US10Y are normalized using a Z-score formula, measuring how far their current price deviates from the mean in standard deviations. This makes different scales comparable and captures relative strength.

Inverse Correlation with Gold:
Since DXY and US10Y tend to move opposite to gold, their Z-scores are inverted. A rising DXY or yield typically pressures gold down — this relationship is built into the model.

Weighted Average Logic:
You can toggle DXY and/or US10Y individually. The script automatically adjusts weightings based on active components to maintain signal integrity.

Scaled Output:
The combined score is transformed into a 0–100 scale:

0–25 = Undervalued

75–100 = Overvalued

50 = Neutral

⚙️ Unique Enhancements:
✅ Trend Filter using adjustable EMA
✅ Volatility Filter with ATR threshold
✅ Signal Cooldown to reduce noise
✅ Optional macro input toggles

These additions ensure the script gives only high-probability, trend-aligned reversal signals in macro extremes — unlike traditional oscillators that may constantly flip in choppy environments.

🧭 How to Use:
Works well on 1H–4H–Daily timeframes

Combine with price action or other macro indicators

Ideal for swing and position traders looking to align trades with macro pressure

🔍 Data Sources:
ICEUS:DXY for US Dollar Index

TVC:US10Y for Treasury Yield

23 Mei

Nota Keluaran

Gold Valuation Index

The Gold vs Dollar Valuation Index is a custom indicator that evaluates the relative valuation of gold in the context of key macroeconomic forces: the U.S. Dollar (via the DXY Index) and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (US10Y). Designed for traders, analysts, and investors, this tool helps contextualize gold’s current strength or weakness within the broader economic environment.

🎯 Purpose
This indicator provides a normalized score on a scale from -100 to +100, representing gold's valuation relative to external macro factors:

Positive values (above 0) suggest gold is strong compared to the dollar and/or interest rates — potentially overvalued.

Negative values (below 0) suggest relative weakness — possibly undervalued.

Zero (0) indicates a neutral valuation in macroeconomic terms.

⚙️ How It Works
The indicator uses Z-score normalization to compare:

Gold price (always included),

DXY index (optional),

10-Year Treasury yield (optional).

These values are blended into a composite index, then scaled to a symmetric range of -100 to +100. This gives a clear and intuitive view of how gold performs in relation to macroeconomic pressures.

🔧 User Settings
Users can customize the indicator via:

Z-Score Length: Number of periods for normalization (default: 50).

Include DXY: Toggle to include/exclude the U.S. Dollar Index.

Include 10Y Yield: Toggle to include/exclude interest rate influence.

This flexibility makes the indicator adaptable to various economic conditions and trading strategies.

📊 Visual Representation
The indicator plots a dynamic line on a -100 to +100 scale, with reference levels at:

+100 (Overvalued) — potential caution or profit-taking zone,

0 (Neutral) — balanced macroeconomic valuation,

-100 (Undervalued) — potential buying opportunity.

🧠 Use Cases
Macro context for gold: Understand gold’s position relative to economic drivers.

Timing tool: Enhance decisions on gold-related trades (GLD, GDX, XAU/USD).

Sentiment filter: Identify extreme divergences that may signal opportunity or risk.

📌 Note
This indicator is meant to provide contextual insight, not standalone buy/sell signals. For best results, use it in combination with other tools such as price action, volume, or fundamental analysis.

🔔 Disclaimer: This tool is intended for educational and analytical purposes. Always conduct your own research and risk management before making trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.