NUPL-Z For Loop

🧠 Overview
NUPL-Z For Loop is a trend-following indicator built on Bitcoin’s on-chain Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. It uses a Z-scored transformation of NUPL and a custom loop-based scoring system to measure the consistency of directional movement. Rather than identifying tops and bottoms, this tool is designed to track sustained trends and filter out short-term noise, making it ideal for momentum-aligned strategies.

🧩 Key Features

• Loop-Based Trend Logic: Assesses trend strength by summing the number of upward vs. downward moves in Z-scored NUPL across a custom lookback.
  
  
• Z-Score Normalization: Applies long-term statistical normalization to NUPL to emphasize deviation from average behavior over time.
  
  
• Threshold-Based Regime Shifts: Custom input thresholds define when trend strength is significant enough to trigger long or short signals.
  
  
• Directional Market State Tracking: Internally tracks bullish, bearish, or neutral conditions to guide trend entries.
  
  
• BTC-Focused On-Chain Analysis: Tailored specifically for Bitcoin using Market Cap and Realized Cap inputs.
  

🔍 How It Works

• NUPL Calculation: Derived as the percentage of net unrealized profit relative to market cap: (MC - RMC) / MC * 100.
  
  
• Z-Scoring: NUPL is normalized using a rolling mean and standard deviation over a long window (default 1300 days) to create a smoothed trend signal.
  
  
• Directional Loop: A custom loop iterates from the start_loop to the end_loop, comparing the current Z-score to past values.
  
  
• Each instance where NUPL_Z > NUPL_Z adds +1 to the score; otherwise, it subtracts -1.
  
  *This cumulative score reflects how consistently NUPL-Z has been trending.
  

Signal Logic:

• Long signal when loop score exceeds long_threshold.
  
  
• Short signal when score falls below short_threshold.
  
  
• CD State Engine: Maintains the current trend regime (1 for long, -1 for short), which drives plot coloring and overlays.
  

🔁 Use Cases & Applications
Momentum Trend Filter: Detects and confirms sustained directional strength in BTC’s profit/loss positioning.

Noise Suppression: Avoids reactive signals from one-off spikes or dips in NUPL by requiring a consistent trend before confirming bias.

Best Suited for BTC: Designed specifically for Bitcoin’s price and on-chain structure, using its unique NUPL dynamics.

✅ Conclusion
NUPL-Z For Loop transforms a traditionally mean-reverting indicator into a trend-following signal engine. By scoring the consistency of movement in normalized NUPL, this tool identifies trend strength rather than reversal potential — providing more reliable context for momentum-aligned trades on Bitcoin.

⚠️ Disclaimer
The content provided by this indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes financial or investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk, including the potential loss of capital. Always backtest and apply risk management suited to your strategy.