Enhanced 3-Month Reversal Strategy v6 (TSLA)

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### **Strategy Overview: Enhanced 3-Month Reversal Strategy v6 for TSLA**

This custom-designed strategy is tailored specifically for **Tesla Inc. (TSLA)**, incorporating a multi-factor scoring model to capture short-term mean-reversion opportunities within a broader trend-aware framework.

---

### **Methodology**

The strategy blends **technical reversal signals** with **trend filtering** and **volatility-adjusted risk management**. It assigns dynamic weights to six core technical indicators for both long and short entries:

- **RSI (7-period):** Identifies overbought/oversold conditions based on percentile ranks.
- **MACD (8/17/9):** Captures short-term momentum shifts with trend confirmation.
- **ADX (14):** Ensures trades are taken only in strong trending environments.
- **Volume Spike:** Confirms breakout or reversal intensity.
- **SMA Crossovers (20 & 50):** Filters trend direction on a medium scale.
- **Implied Volatility Rank (126-period HV proxy):** Measures relative volatility levels to confirm timing.

All inputs are scored based on weighted signals, and trades are only entered when the composite score exceeds a defined threshold.

---

### **Features**
- ✅ **Volatility-based dynamic stop-loss and take-profit** for adaptive risk management.
- ✅ **Intraday trading window filter** to restrict trades to regular market hours (default: 9AM–4PM EST).
- ✅ **Trend filter (200-SMA)** to allow long trades only in bullish markets.
- ✅ **Score threshold parameters** are fully adjustable for optimization.
- ✅ **Individual trade P&L tracking** via chart annotations.

---

### **Backtest Summary**
- **Time period:** Backtested on TSLA from **January 2022 to March 2025**.
- **Data granularity:** 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes show best performance consistency.
- **Market regime:** Performs well in both trending and volatile mean-reversion phases.

---

### **Best Input Parameters (from hyperparameter tuning)**

**Long Entry Weights:**
- RSI: `0.35`
- IV Rank: `0.10`
- MACD: `0.15`
- SMA Condition: `0.25`
- ADX: `0.15`
- Volume Spike: `0.25`

**Short Entry Weights:**
- RSI: `0.20`
- IV Rank: `0.15`
- MACD: `0.30`
- SMA Condition: `0.00`
- ADX: `0.15`
- Volume Spike: `0.30`

**Other Settings:**
- MACD Signal Period: `9`
- RSI Length: `7`
- IV Period: `126`
- SMA Periods: `20 & 50`
- Trend Filter SMA: `200`
- Stop Loss / Take Profit: `1.0 × HV` multiplier

---

--- Optuna 优化完成 ---
最佳 Trial 编号: 29
最佳 Total Return [%]: 17927.75678703037
最佳参数:
rsi_length: 13
iv_length: 140
macd_fast: 7
macd_slow: 30
adx_length: 25
sma_short_period: 21
sma_long_period: 78
volume_ma_period: 14
rsi_low_percentile: 21
rsi_high_percentile: 60
iv_low_percentile: 11
iv_high_percentile: 89
take_profit_mult: 4.0
stop_loss_mult: 5.0
bullish_threshold: 0.65
bearish_threshold: 0.9
rsi_bull_weight: 0.5
iv_bull_weight: 0.25
macd_bull_weight: 0.30000000000000004
sma_bull_weight: 0.1
adx_bull_weight: 0.0
volume_bull_weight: 0.3
rsi_bear_weight: 0.5
iv_bear_weight: 0.2
macd_bear_weight: 0.15000000000000002
sma_bear_weight: 0.1
adx_bear_weight: 0.1
volume_bear_weight: 0.15000000000000002
macd_signal: 9

6 hari lalu

Nota Keluaran

### **Strategy Overview: Enhanced 3-Month Reversal Strategy v6 for TSLA**

This custom-designed strategy is tailored specifically for **Tesla Inc. (TSLA)**, incorporating a multi-factor scoring model to capture short-term mean-reversion opportunities within a broader trend-aware framework.

---

### **Methodology**

The strategy blends **technical reversal signals** with **trend filtering** and **volatility-adjusted risk management**. It assigns dynamic weights to six core technical indicators for both long and short entries:

- **RSI (7-period):** Identifies overbought/oversold conditions based on percentile ranks.
- **MACD (8/17/9):** Captures short-term momentum shifts with trend confirmation.
- **ADX (14):** Ensures trades are taken only in strong trending environments.
- **Volume Spike:** Confirms breakout or reversal intensity.
- **SMA Crossovers (20 & 50):** Filters trend direction on a medium scale.
- **Implied Volatility Rank (126-period HV proxy):** Measures relative volatility levels to confirm timing.

All inputs are scored based on weighted signals, and trades are only entered when the composite score exceeds a defined threshold.

---

### **Features**
- ✅ **Volatility-based dynamic stop-loss and take-profit** for adaptive risk management.
- ✅ **Intraday trading window filter** to restrict trades to regular market hours (default: 9AM–4PM EST).
- ✅ **Trend filter (200-SMA)** to allow long trades only in bullish markets.
- ✅ **Score threshold parameters** are fully adjustable for optimization.
- ✅ **Individual trade P&L tracking** via chart annotations.

---

### **Backtest Summary**
- **Time period:** Backtested on TSLA from **January 2022 to March 2025**.
- **Data granularity:** 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes show best performance consistency.
- **Market regime:** Performs well in both trending and volatile mean-reversion phases.

---

### **Best Input Parameters (from hyperparameter tuning)**

**Long Entry Weights:**
- RSI: `0.35`
- IV Rank: `0.10`
- MACD: `0.15`
- SMA Condition: `0.25`
- ADX: `0.15`
- Volume Spike: `0.25`

**Short Entry Weights:**
- RSI: `0.20`
- IV Rank: `0.15`
- MACD: `0.30`
- SMA Condition: `0.00`
- ADX: `0.15`
- Volume Spike: `0.30`

**Other Settings:**
- MACD Signal Period: `9`
- RSI Length: `7`
- IV Period: `126`
- SMA Periods: `20 & 50`
- Trend Filter SMA: `200`
- Stop Loss / Take Profit: `1.0 × HV` multiplier

---

--- Optuna 优化完成 ---
最佳 Trial 编号: 29
最佳 Total Return [%]: 17927.75678703037
最佳参数:
rsi_length: 13
iv_length: 140
macd_fast: 7
macd_slow: 30
adx_length: 25
sma_short_period: 21
sma_long_period: 78
volume_ma_period: 14
rsi_low_percentile: 21
rsi_high_percentile: 60
iv_low_percentile: 11
iv_high_percentile: 89
take_profit_mult: 4.0
stop_loss_mult: 5.0
bullish_threshold: 0.65
bearish_threshold: 0.9
rsi_bull_weight: 0.5
iv_bull_weight: 0.25
macd_bull_weight: 0.30000000000000004
sma_bull_weight: 0.1
adx_bull_weight: 0.0
volume_bull_weight: 0.3
rsi_bear_weight: 0.5
iv_bear_weight: 0.2
macd_bear_weight: 0.15000000000000002
sma_bear_weight: 0.1
adx_bear_weight: 0.1
volume_bear_weight: 0.15000000000000002
macd_signal: 9

6 hari lalu

Nota Keluaran

updated on 2025/04/02 Trails = 5000