Central Bank Dark Energy Tracer

13 Feb 2023

Central Bank Dark Energy Tracer (CBDE Tracer)

What makes The Universe grow at an accelerating pace?
Dark Energy.
What makes The Economy grow at an accelerating pace?
Debt.
Debt is the Dark Energy of The Economy.

The CBDE Tracer is a tool that tracks currency assets in US dollars that can be scaled to fit other assets on TradingView.

The example provided is QQQ with scale factors and offsets applied that best curve fit to the most recent price action.

The white line is non-US assets from the following central banks:
-JPY (Japan)
-CNY (China)
-UK (British Pound)
-SNB (Swiss National Bank)
-ECB (European Central Bank )

The lime green line is for US Federal Reserve data including a midpoint of WRESBAL and the fed liquidity calculation (WALCL - WTREGEN) and then subtracting RRPONTSYD

The purple line is the average of the two, US assets, and non-US.

The settings can be configured so that only the average is showing, which should the closest aggregate of all liquidity data.

13 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Remove unused inputs for signal visibility.

The show/hide settings are in the Style settings tab, where the colors can also be modified.

13 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Update chart

15 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Organizes settings a bit better.

Adds new settings for an EMA option for the aggregate signal. This smooths out the signal, but it also provides a TA option, with EMA length setting.

Adds a table with FRED RRP total, and 1d delta for convenience.

15 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Add all Central Bank signals and 1 bar deltas to info table

Format the inputs in the settings for better usability

16 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Added the reverse repo plot as a separate option.

This reverse repo signal (RRP) has been a strong magnet for price action in QQQ

16 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Update defaults for RRP line to match QQQ December 2022 high/low

16 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Update scaling and offset params for QQQ RRP levels

18 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Add Korean Bank Assets to non-US assets tracking
Update scale factors for non-US assets to reflect QQQ price
Changed default EMA length to 12. seems more accurate to price support, at least today.

19 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

Include scale/offsets for spy in commented out defaults (experimental for now)
Update offsets for QQQ to calibrate for price history and current price.

22 Feb 2023

Nota Keluaran

- Fine tuned the scale/offsets for QQQ
- Adds currency info table to see changes per bar in central bank assets
- Changed string formatting to be more efficient with space (easier to read, and less motion in the updates with XX.X B, instead of XX.XX B)

5 Mac 2023

Nota Keluaran

Adds a new option to plot the non-US assets as one signal, in billions USD.

Changes the short title to be CBDET, shortens it a bit on screen.

8 Mac 2023

Nota Keluaran

Added Bank of Canada Assets

Changed some defaults so that not so many plots show up by default, and force the user to go hide things

9 Mac 2023

Nota Keluaran

Adds scale and offset presets for QQQ and SPX
Auto-detects if the symbol QQQ or SPX and applies the appropriate scale factor
Note: Only optimized for SPX and QQQ at this time

Commented out is a block of code that can be used to expose the scale/offset parameters to optimize for any symbol of choice. This way the scale and offsets don't have to be found through trial and error by saving the script.

Changed the default to false for the EMA setting

18 Mac 2023

Nota Keluaran

- adds discount window offset, with setting to turn off and on. This avoids including the fed balance sheet data from 3/16/2023 that represents loans to banks.
- adds a new feature in settings that will render background colors representing whether price is above or below CBDET

18 Mac 2023

Nota Keluaran

Added formula for non-liquid Fed balance sheet assets, instead of hack with constant offset.

19 Mac 2023

Nota Keluaran

Use arrays to clean up the logic for selecting scale/offset presets

14 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

Default the "non-liquid" offset to FALSE, and update scale/offsets for SPX & QQQ

The reason for this is to include the BTFP and discount window loans in the balance sheet by default. Over the past month or so experimenting with the offset, the loans on the balance sheet do seem to have an effect on price, so they should be factored in by default.

17 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

- Use WTDGAL instead of WTREGEN for Treasury General Account (TGA)
- Remove WRESBAL from the Fed liquidity equation to simplify formula
- Add scale/offset params for NQ, and ES with symbol auto-detect for both
- organize settings into better categories
- add settings for background color using divergence indicator

18 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

Replace the "non-liquid" offset with specific items from the FRED balance sheet page

Optional fed balance sheet items include the following:
WSHOICL
WUPSHO
WLCFLL

18 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

Add gradient feature to background color divergence indicator.

This gives the color coding a bit more presence and functionality. The brighter the color, the more the divergence.

19 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

Fix bug where EMA wasn't used for color coding the divergence with the background color feature

19 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

Add TGA (treasury general account) override feature so that the daily balance can be used to be more up-to-date.

Daily TGA balance can be found on the treasury.gov website

20 Apr 2023

Nota Keluaran

Fix bug in liquidity table that used South Korea assets in place where CAD should have been.

26 Jun 2023

Nota Keluaran

Adds WLAD from the liabilities side of the Fed balance sheet to the net liquidity equation.

3 Ogo 2023

Nota Keluaran

Workaround for missing symbol CNCBBS

Using a constant for the PBoC balance sheet

7 Ogo 2023

Nota Keluaran

Clean up tables and separate the FRED data from the liquidity values.

22 Ogo 2023

Nota Keluaran

Remove CNCBBS workaround. The ticker is back online.

28 Nov 2023

Nota Keluaran

- remove RRP signal to simplify maintenance and avoid confusion with overlapping signals
- add "potential liquidity" signal
- Clean up magic numbers (scale factors)

Potential liquidity is a new feature that adds the TGA and RRP (treasury general account and reverse repo) to the Fed liquidity assets, and averages this signal with the total non-US central bank liquidity. By adding the liabilities, "potential" liquidity offers a perspective on what is possible in the market given that liabilities are completely drained and provided to the economy and markets. This also provides a way to visualize the use of QT as it drains potential liquidity.

24 Mei

Nota Keluaran

- Add signal for potential spread (the difference between net liquidity and potential)
- Add signal for potential price (the price if potential liquidity is equal to net liquidity)
- Add signal for price divergence (the difference between net liquidity and closing price)